保时捷SE：市场表现，目标价35欧元（此前为38欧元）

Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 35.00 EUR(38.00OLD) PAH3.GR Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Porsche SE: Still all about VW and P911 Model update:We update our Porsche SE estimates which are directly influenced by ourestimates for its principal holdings, namely its 53.3% stake in Volkswagen’s ordinary shares(so a 31.9% interest in the total share capital), and its 25% plus one share in Porsche AG’sordinary shares (so a 12.5% interest in the total share capital). These include our mostrecent forecast changes from our VW and Porsche AG (P911) post 1Q26 reports - links here(Volkswagen post 1Q26, Porsche AG post 1Q26). These reduce our estimates for PorscheSE from the levels in our previous report from 14 January 2026. Our estimate for profit aftertax lies at €2.7bn, between Porsche SE’s guidance of €1.5bn to €3.5bn, for 2026. As for netdebt, we reach €4.86bn vs Porsche SE’s guidance of €4.7bn to €5.2bn at the end of 2026. Bernstein view:since acquiring its stake in Porsche AG back in 2022/23, Porsche SE hasremained heavily indebted. Both Volkswagen and Porsche AG have struggled in a difficultautomotive environment in recent years which has led to lower dividend income for PorscheSE. Its holdings in VW and Porsche AG are its primary source of cash flow and their lowerdividends have pressured Porsche SE’s own dividend, which has fallen for two consecutiveyears (€1.9 per share in 2024 and a proposal for €1.5 per share for the 2025 result). PorscheSE’s ability to reduce debt is predicated on the recovery of its two principal holdings and untilthat happens, we continue to believe the stock will remain range bound. Investment Implications Our price target falls to €35, from €38 previously, due to the changes in our price targets forboth Volkswagen and Porsche AG since our last report on Porsche SE on 14 January 2026.As of that date, we had valued the preference shares of Volkswagen and Porsche AG at €108and €50 respectively; since, our price targets have fallen to €100 and €45 respectively,driving reduction in our Porsche SE price target. We still apply a 40% holding discount.Porsche has made some progress with its portfolio investments in the tech space, but withtheir combined market value of less than €0.5bn at 31 March 2026, they remain dwarfed bythe €14.2bn market value of its VW stake, the €4.7bn value of its Porsche stake AG and its€5.1bn of net debt at that same date. DETAILS PORSCHE SE: MARKET-PERFORM, PRICE TARGET €35 (PREVIOUSLY €38) We update our Porsche SE estimates which are directly influenced by our estimates for its holdings, mainly its 53.3% stake inVolkswagen’s ordinary shares, and its 12.5% stake in Porsche AG. These include our most recent forecast changes from our VWand Porsche AG post 1Q26 reports - links here (Volkswagen post 1Q26, Porsche AG post 1Q26). These take our estimates for Porsche SE down from our previous report on 14 January 2026. Our estimate for profit after taxlies at €2.7bn, between Porsche SE’s guidance of €1.5bn to €3.5bn, for 2026. As for net debt, we reach €4.86bn vs PorscheSE’s guidance of €4.7bn to €5.2bn at the end of 2026. EXHIBIT 1:Porsche SE old vs new estimates The primary reason for the scale of the 40% discount we apply to Porsche SE’s NAV are the (seemingly) interminable pendinglegal disputes that the group helpfully summarises in Exhibit 4. These date back to Porsche’s abortive attempt to acquireVolkswagen between 2005-08 and the communication around the Dieselgate scandal from 2015. Porsche SE has hadfavorable rulings in practically every proceeding that has been held, but the appeals process to the highest courts continues.Indeed, we note that in January 2026 the German Federal Court , that had been expected to provide some sort of defining rulingon Porsche’s culpability in the diesel case, chose to direct questions to the European Court of Justice, further prolonging theprocess. On the Volkswagen abortive acquisition attempt case, the Federal court is still expected to provide feedback in thecourse of 2026, but may well also direct questions to the European Court of Justice. Source: Porsche SE EXHIBIT 4:Pending legal disputes of Porsche SE 1 VALUATION Our €35 Porsche SE target price is based on our target prices VW and Porsche AG to get the NAV/fair value of the group’sholdings, adjusted for a 40% holding discount. We utilise our VW preference target price of €100 and apply a premium for theordinary shares over preference shares of 6.5% (based on the average premium). We arrive at a €107 valuation for VW ordinaryshares. In addition, we utilise our share price target of €45 for Porsche AG and have assumed that preference and ordinaryshares are priced the same. We also value Porsche S