制定你的2026年薪酬规划战略

Trends that will shape moderntotal rewards decisions Over the past three years, the U.S. labormarket has undergone a significant reset.2025 marks the first time the number ofunemployed workers exceeds the numberof available job openings since 2021,marking a clear shift from the talent-scarceenvironment that drove aggressive hiringand rapid wage escalation. The era ofcompeting for talent at any cost is receding. All the while, compensation budgets have stabilized.Following pandemic-era spikes, most organizationsare now planning annual salary increases in themid-3% range, a more measured approach reflectingthe continued shift in supply and demand of workforcetalent and continued economic and geopoliticaluncertainty. However, this stability masks a widening divide. Paytrends are diverging sharply depending on role typeand labor supply. Skilled trades and other front-line, on-site roles continue to command premiumwage growth due to persistent staffing challenges.Meanwhile, compensation growth in technology andprofessional services has cooled as hiring normalizesand remote work arrangements mature. Remote workers — once positioned to benefit mostfrom flexible labor markets — are now feeling thetrade-offs: smaller merit increases, lower engagementscores, and slower promotion advancement relativeto on-site employees. This shift underscores the risingimportance of intentional pay differentiation basedon role criticality, skill scarcity, and contribution tooutcomes. This report examines how leading organizations aremoving away from uniform, across-the-board increasesand toward targeted, data-driven merit strategies. Thegoal: sustain engagement and reward impact whileensuring compensation investments are aligned withbusiness priorities. Sign up to participate in a future survey. Table of contents Workforce supply and demand have shifted4Compensation budgets have stabilized5Compensation priorities are changing8A tale of two labor markets9Remote workers face slower pay growth and lower engagement10Beyond peanut butter: Optimizing your merit process12The road ahead13Mercer supports clients in solving critical reward challenges14 Workforce supplyand demandhave shifted For the first time since 2021, there arenow more unemployed persons thanjob openings. Ratio of Unemployed Workers to Job OpeningsJanuary 2019 through August 2025 Compensation budgetshave stabilized For total rewards leaders, the “spend-at-all-costs”tactics used previously are no longer viable. Thecurrent environment shows organizations adoptinga more precise and disciplined approach. After several years of volatility,compensation planning is returningto a more stable footing. The post-pandemic surge of double-digit salaryincreases and rapid market adjustments has largelysubsided. While the broader economic environmentremains uncertain, compensation budgets are settlingcloser to historical norms. For 2026, employers projectan average merit increase budget of 3.2% and a totalsalary increase budget of 3.5%. This marks the thirdconsecutive year of relative stability following thesharper upward adjustments seen in 2021–2023. Organizations are focusing on targeted compensationinvestments that align with business priorities,reinforce critical skills, and proactively manage risk.Broad, uniform pay practices, on the other hand, canwiden inequities and stall progress toward closingmeaningful pay gaps. Stabilizing compensation increase budgets 3 years of greater budget consistency following a post-pandemic spike The highest total increase budgets are seen inBanking/Financial Services, Energy, and High Tech,all projected at 3.7%. In the case of Banking/FinancialServices, the merit increase budget is below nationalaverage at 3.0%, which shows a large emphasis inother compensation adjustments such as promotionalincreases, cost-of-living increases, and more. Although the national average projected meritincrease for 2026 is 3.2%, many industries reportlower averages. Healthcare and Retail, traditionallyconservative in their compensation strategies, arereporting projected increases of 2.9%. Fast moving jobs Specializations with 5% or greateryear-over-year movement Our 2025 U.S. Mercer Benchmarking Database(MBD) Survey data shows a sharp decline inthe number of jobs experiencing year-over-year pay increases of 5% or more. In 2023, 650roles saw compensation grow more than 5%,but this number dropped dramatically to 168in 2024 and dropped even further to just 87in 2025. This downward trend reinforces thatthe post-pandemic period of accelerated wagegrowth and labor market pressure has cooledconsiderably. Employers appear to be shiftingtoward more moderate pay increases as marketconditions stabilize and inflation trends ease. This cooling trend also suggests a returnto more traditional compensation planningafter several years of elevated wagepressure. Industries that faced acute laborshortages during the height of disruption arestabilizing, reducing the ne