高油价为电动汽车的采用提供助力，但并非激增

Automobiles forecasts by up to 1-1.5ppt; the US on the other hand remains weak; China EV growth hit by lower government support.Wethink(more)favourableeconomicsforEVsonthebackofhigherpumppriceswillbesupportiveforadoption,butnotthe Senior Global Autos AnalystHSBC Bank plcmichael.tyndall@hsbc.com+44 20 3359 6301Pushkar Tendolkar* watershedthatsomesuggest.Purchasedecisionsaremulti-faceted.Energyshortages,however,couldwelldriveasurge.+The longerthe Middle East conflict prevails and the pace at which“normal"energy supply resumes will determine how much of a boost EV demand sees as a result. Higher consumer interest in EVs might mean perceptions see a more permanent uplift. GlobalAutosAnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)Private Limitedpushkarnarendratendolkar@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2752Alice Martin* toward EVs is likely to remain unchanged.US: No signs of change in government support for BEVs. In 2025, there Higher pump prices (up 15-28% YTD in the UK and closer to 60% in the US) are supportive to the economics of EVs,but we thinkfuel cost was neverreally an impediment to adoption (Germany post the Ukraine gas crisismightinfrastructure,andweakerresidualvaluesashurdles.Wearenotconvincedhigher fuel prices will drive a spike in EV demand in and of itself (see MiddleEast Conflict: To EV or not to EV, 1 April 2026). That being said, the longerthe conflict lasts and the growing risk of disruption in supply/fuel shortagesthe case in Australia, where the prospect of fuel shortages has seen EVorders spike (FleetEV News,11May2026).Stronger used EV demandseemstobehelpingresidualvalues,withAprilseeingthesefirming upintheUKandUS(CoxAutomotive,7May2026,andAutoTrader,11May2026) Global Autos AnalystHSBC Bank plcalice.martin@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 0175 was a clear policy shift away from BEVs in the US - end of EV credits,zeroing of CAFE fines,proposed easing of EPA mileage targets, andrevocation of the CARB's authority to set independent targets. CARB isfighting this action in court, but as it stands (other than the higher gas price)the backdrop for EVs in the US in unchanged. We make no changes to ourNorth America BEV and PHEV forecasts at this time, with penetration largelyafunction of consumerchoice.We expect lowgrowthas BEVs in the US facenatural impediments to adoption (larger vehicles, longer driving distances,sparce charging network). It continues to be a tough backdrop. HSBC Bank plc *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Incand is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations ViewHSBC Global InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com China: EV growth normalising. EV demand growth is set to moderate toc15% in 2026, with penetration reaching 62%.The halving of EV purchasetax exemptions,lowerreplacementsubsidies,anda maturingadoption curvepoint to slower but still structurally healthy growth. Some late-2025 demandgiven weak consumption sentiment (see China EV: 2026 reset, 20 Jan 2026). Europe:weraiseour interimforecasts, leave 2030-35e unchanged.Thisis ourfourth consecutive upgrade to our European forecasts; full-year 2025and 2026 YTD growth in the major markets has been particularly strong.Despite the apparent easing of regulatory pressure and some movement ingovernment support, the high-frequency data we track shows EV penetrationhascontinuedtoriseinEurope.Thisshould increasefurther,supportedby(moreaffordable)product launches.New incentive schemes in FranceandGermanywillhelp too.Weleaveour2030and2035EV forecasts This is our latest report on the Future Transport theme. If you wanttosubscribetoanyofourninebigthemes,clickhere Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read withthedisclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. HSBc Global Investment Research Future Transport 12 May 2026 Contents Regions17 OEMs33 Batteries37 Semiconductors Related research49 Disclosure appendix52 Disclaimer55 AbbreviationMeaningBEVBattery electric vehicleCAFECorporate average fuel economyCARBCalifornia Air Resources BoardEVincludes BEV and PHEVFCEVFuel cellelectric vehicleLIBLithium-ion batteryLTM (sum)Rolling 12-month summationMCUMicro controllerPHEVPlug in hybrid vehicleSSBSolid state batteryxEVincludes BEV, PHEV and FCEV Changes toHSBC EV penetrationforecastby region very strong demand for BEVs YTD. Looking ahead, a further rise in penetration issupported by an expectation of increase in BEV mix as new, more affordable modelsare launched and incentives in countries suchas Germany and France continuetoor are being introduced throughout 2H26.Forecasts forthe outer years (2030-35e) in Europe are unchanged as we believe our HSBC's China Automotive Research team lowered its EV penetration forecasts inChina EV: 2026 reset, 20 January 2026. The halving of EV purchase tax exemptions,lower replacement subsidies, and a maturing adoption curve point to slower but stillstructurally healthy growth. Thetable