京东第一季度：做正确的事

Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com China Internet JD.com Inc Charles Gou+852 2123 2618charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com Rating Outperform Min-Joo Kang+852 2123 2644minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 40.00 USD(36.00OLD)155.00 HKD(140.00OLD) Hyrum Caesar+81 3 6777 6979hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com JD Q1: Doing the right things A solid Q1 print.JD's Q1 revenue of RMB316bn was 4.9% higher year on year, and c. 1%ahead of our estimate (RMB314bn) and Street consensus (RMB311bn). RMB53.0bn of grossprofit grew 10.8% year on year, and implied 90bps of year on year gross margin expansion.Electronics & Appliances revenue fell 8.4%, lapping comps boosted by government purchaseincentives, while General Merchandise revenue grew 14.9%. Marketplace and marketingrevenue grew 18.8%. RMB15.0bn of JD Retail operating profit was 16.5% higher year on Close Date11 May 2026JD Close Price (USD)30.53Price Target (USD)40.00Upside/(Downside)31%52-Week Range38.08/24.51SPX7,412.84FYEDecDiv Yield3.3%Market Cap (USD) (M)41,699EV (CNY) (M)202,324 The profit beat came from a narrowing in New Businesses losses.Group level non-GAAP operating profit of RMB5.6bn was either side of 100%(!) ahead of our estimate andconsensus. JD disclosure on JD Retail inventory turnover pointed to JD Retail gross marginscontinuing to improve, while RMB15.1bn of non-GAAP marketing spend was materially lowerversus RMB25.0bn in Q4. Accordingly, RMB10.4bn of New Businesses loss compared withRMB14.8bn in Q4, and drove most of the beat compared with our numbers. JD management Physical AI vs. tokenmaxxing.Management speaking around the quarter mostly strucka confident tone. Slower sequential growth (lapping high comps from a year ago) wasflagged into the quarter, while the company reiterated prior guidance on the full year. Theextent to which General Merchandise growth can remain rapid while food delivery spend isscaled back will continue to be watched. But this was another quarter of “so far, so good”.Investors generally remain skeptical that JD’s 2027E EPS can get close to 2024 levels, but DETAILS A SOLID Q1 EARNINGS PRINT, CONFIDENT GUIDANCE ON PROFITS As is typical, the broad strokes of JD’s Q1 print were well flagged into the quarter - the numbers that matter were generally solidin our view. RMB316bn of revenue was 4.9% higher year on year, and came in 1% ahead of Street consensus (RMB311bn).Electronics & Appliances revenue fell 8.4% year on year, while General Merchandise revenue grew 14.9%. Marketplace andmarketing revenue grew 18.8% this quarter. RMB15.0bn of JD Retail operating profit was 16.5% higher year on year, whichwe think implied a 5.6% margin (+70bps year on year). RMB10.4bn of New Businesses loss compared with RMB14.8bn in Q4, We remain fans of the stock, amid an otherwise rather middling environment for the broader sector. Top-down consumptionin China remains a question for e-commerce in China, and one can certainly debate the link between food delivery spend andGeneral Merchandise growth, and the extent to which the latter improves when the former falls. But our sense is JD can deliveron its earnings guidance for the year - even if there’s some give on top-line. Amid the global tokenmaxxing movement, JD’s We expect the company’s guidance for 2027 earnings growth to accelerate versus 2026 to remain a show-me story.Regardless, we expect the combination of low forward valuations, ongoing capital returns ($630mn of buybacks in Q1), andtop-line acceleration to continue to support its shares. It wouldn’t shock us if Q2 questions meant the stock treaded water for a Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2 show a summary of JD's Q1 results. Exhibit 3 shows a summary of our updated estimates for JD. Ourupdated price target for JD reflects an unchanged 9x FY+1 (e.g. quarter 5-8) PE multiple, compared with earnings rolled over Exhibit 4 to Exhibit 11 summarise the key quarterly data points we track for the company. Q1 REPORTING IN CHARTS Exhibit 4 to Exhibit 11 summarise the key quarterly data points we track for the company. Source: Corporate reports and Bernstein analysis. EXHIBIT 10:JD's gross margin in Q1 2026 edged up to16.8%, versus 15.9% in Q1 2025 EXHIBIT 11:JD Retail operating margin was 5.6% in Q12026, up 70bps year on year APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services