4月贸易势头持续

Date11 May 2026 Economics China Macro Trade Momentum Continues in April Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203-6166Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203-6139 China exports grew by 14.1%YoYin April, exceeding the market's expectation of8% and our estimate of 10%.This strong performance was primarily driven bycontinued robust demand from emerging markets,AI-related products, autosandparts,and HALO assets.Most notably,export growth of computers and Imports increasedmore rapidly,by 25.3%YoY,acceleratingfromQ1(23.6%)andbeating expectationsagain (consensus: 14.7%, DB: 18%).In the first four months,import growth on average outpaced export growth by 8 percentage points •Rawmaterials andequipment forexportproduction:The largest driversof import growth in Q1 were AI-related products, primary products,metals, machinery, and chemicals. This aligns strongly with China's •Risingoverseasprices:For major imported goods with disclosed data,import-price growth in Aprilbroadlyexceeded that of Q1. This was mostevident inpetroleum, where prices surged by 42%YoY in April, adramatic 50ppt increase from Q1. Our estimates suggest that the •Potentialrecovery indomesticdemand:Industrialinventoriesgrew by8.3%YoYin Q1, doubling the growth rate of the previous year. Threereasons could underpin this rise in industrial demand and inventorystockpiling: a) Companies stocked up in anticipation of higher commodity Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Source:Deutsche Bank Research, CEIC 11 May 2026China Macro Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated andare sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are 11 May 2026China Macro Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research term ratings. Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls on the Research Website(https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the coveredcompany's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform orunderperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frameof no less than two weeks and no more thanthree months. In addition to Catalyst Calls, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with DeutscheBank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events thatmay have a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may bedirectionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein.DeutscheBank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if anopinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in marketconditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at 11 May 2026China Macro The Deutsche Bank Rese