中国：能源主导的价格指标

Energy-skewed price indicators April inflation data show oil prices driving a sharp PPIrebound and higher energy CPI, while core and servicesinflation stayed muted. Upstream price pressures surged, butweak pass-through to downstream sectors.Softcore and Yingke Zhou +852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Ying Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong •April: 1.2% y/y for CPI, and 2.8% y/y for PPI •Bloomberg consensus forecast (Barclays): 0.9% (0.8%) y/y for CPI, and 1.8% (1.2%) y/ Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong •March: 1.0% y/y for CPI, and 0.5% y/y for PPI The April price data suggest that rising oil prices continued to push up PPI inflation andenergy-related components of CPI, while the impact on core and services CPI remainedcontained, pointing to limited second-roundeffects.AfterPPI exited deflation in March for thefirst time since late 2022, it accelerated further to 2.8% y/y (from 0.5%), far exceeding market The PPI breakdown shows that the rebound was mainly driven by upstream raw materials(April: 7.1% y/y vs 1.1% in March) and mining (10.6% vs 2.0%), while price pressures indownstream consumer goods (-1.0% vs-1.3%) and manufacturing sectors (1.5% vs 0.9%)remained much more muted. This suggests that downstream firms are still struggling to passhigher input costs further along the value chain. Within upstream sectors, PPI for oil and gas While CPI inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.2% y/y in April, we think this modest pickup in headlineinflation mainly reflected energy-driven supply-side constraints rather than demand-ledreflation or second-roundeffects.We estimate the contribution from energy to headline CPIrose by about 0.5pp in April, compared with only a 0.2pp increase in headline CPI inflation. This Consistent with this view, several major CPI components continued to decline, includinghousing rents (April:-0.6% y/y vs-0.5% in March), automobiles (-1.2% vs-1.1%), and householdgoods and services (1.4% vs 1.5%). Moreover, core CPI remained subdued at 1.1–1.2% in March–April following the Middle East conflict, compared with an average of 1.3% in January–February. CPI breakdown: broadly stable core and services inflation Looking at the breakdown, we highlight some of the key developments in the CPI data: Goods CPI inflationedged up slightly to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.3% previously, as a sharprise in gasoline prices more thanoffsetdeclines in food prices. Domestic gasoline pricessurged 19.3% y/y, up from 3.8% in March, contributing around 0.56pp to headline CPI. In Core CPI remained relatively resilient at 1.2% y/y, up marginally from 1.1%, but still below itspre-conflict average of 1.3% in January–February. Within core goods, gold jewellerycontributed 0.2pp to headline inflation, although gold price growth moderated. Prices inother key goods categories firmed, with household appliances and clothing rising 2.6% and1.6% y/y, respectively, together adding about 0.11pp to CPI inflation. By contrast, vehicle Services CPI inflationedged up to 0.9% y/y in April from 0.8% in March, broadly in line withits pre-conflict level in January–February. Prices of basic public services remained largelystable, with healthcare services (April: 3.4% y/y vs 3.0% in March) and education services(steady at 0.5%) continuing to rise, together contributing around 0.25pp to headline CPI. Meanwhile, according to the NBS, prices of labour-intensive services increased only modestly.Pet services, dining out, housekeeping, and vehicle repair and maintenance saw price rises of1.1%–1.4%, jointly contributing roughly 0.10pp to CPI inflation. In contrast, housing rents fell0.6% y/y, marking the fastest pace of decline since January 2023, while data from the China PPI breakdown: notable rise in upstream sectors April PPI rose 2.8%afterreturning to positive growth in March with a 0.5% gain. The notableimprovement was supported by surging prices in non-ferrous metals and energy-relatedsectors, with surging copper prices amid strong AI and green tech-related demand and supplyconcerns amid Middle East conflicts, as well as higher energy prices. On a m/m basis, PPI rose Looking at the breakdown, the producer goods PPI for mining (April: 10.6%, March: 2.0%) andraw materials (April: 7.1%, March: 1.1%) jumped, while manufacturing PPI picked up at muchmeasured pace (April: 1.5%, March: 0.9%). However, the consumer goods PPI remained indeflation, despite some narrowing (April: -1%, March: -1.3%). Meanwhile, the decline in By sector and on a m/m basis, the PPI for energy-related sectors rose notably amid rising globaloil prices. Sectorsaffectedincluded oil and gas extraction (April: 18.5%, March: 15.8%), fuelprocessing (April: 16.4%, March: 5.8%), chemicals (April: 8.3%, March: 3.6%), chemical fiber(April: 5.6, March: 3.4%) and rubber and plastics (April: 1.7, March: 0.6%). Moreover, as marketcompetition continues to normalize thanks to the an