黄金为何有望打破区间震荡格局

Why gold could break its holding Gold restrained by potential for hawkish response The US-Iran war has held gold and silver in a holding pattern which is informed byhawkish policy scenarios should oil supply constraints translate into higher-than-baseline energy prices. That has contributed to the strong negative correlation Bank of Canada: "There may be a need for consecutive increases" in the eventenergy prices remain elevated for a longer-than-anticipated period (5 May)1 Bank of England: "“If we see this pass through – becoming embedded andbecoming persistent – we will have to respond, because that’s our job and that’show we get inflation back to target" (30 Apr)2 ECB: "a forceful or persistent reaction to return inflation to our target of 2 per cent medium-term" in case of a large and sustainable deviation from target (30 Apr) As for what may constitute a baseline energy price expectation, the RBA notes thatit assumes the futures price curve: "We’re taking the assumption of the futuresprice curve for Brent and some people are suggesting that that is optimistic." (5 For gold we think it is helpful and relevant that the Fed is not at the vanguard ofpotential policy rate increases, and stands least priced for a change throughDecember (Figure 2). Along with this, our US Econ team assesses lower policy ratesas more likely than higher over the course of the year (Link), and this has likely Armistice may break gold's holding pattern If one agrees that the threat of higher oil prices and a hawkish response arerestraining precious metals, then more promising US-Iran negotiations shouldtherefore lean positively. On that point it is important that China is beginning to playa more prominent role in the lead-up to President Trump's visit in mid-May. At the On a war resolution, gold may break from the low trendiness and high-vol regimethat has prevailed since mid-Feb. That environment is arguably unattractive for ETF participation move together to some extent, Figure 3, though one can conceiveof causation moving in both directions. Trendiness is one standard deviation below USD negativity likely to reassert itself From the FX perspective we think that a USD-negative trend is likely to reassert itself(The Big FX View). This would leave room for gold's still-elevated USD beta to workpositively rather than negatively. This sensitivity crossed -4.0 in January and mostlyremained greater than that since then (Figure 4). We think EURUSD moving less Very low open interest A latent piece of positivity is that gold positioning is relatively low, considering thereduction in futures positioning since late January. On a related note, gold and silverfutures open interest are both unusually low – gold open interest fell to a 17-year lowin March, and silver open interest to a 14-year low in April. The 30-day change in ETF Gold closer to fair value now Referencing a fair value model conditioned on year-on-year changes in the broaddollar index, 10y TIPS, US public debt and the equity risk premium (description here), gold is trading closer to the fair value model than at most points in the pastsix months. This indicates valuation excesses have shrunk and gold's current levelis now less remarkable. Any overhang from the unnaturally rapid price gains seen Gold declines are usually reversed Lastly we sift through historical performance to see what forward guidance it mayoffer, conditional on short and sharp moves. For example in late January, we sawthat the strength of gold's 2-week rise was on the borderline of triggering a Now it may be time to ask the opposite question – do gold-lower moves portend anypositivity for the 6m and 12m forward windows? There were six instances of a 2-week gold spot performance weaker than -10% (between -10% and -16%) seen this March. These instances essentially covered one episode, since the analysis allowsfor overlapping periods. That would be the most instances in a year since 2013,Figure 7. We find that the expected performance of gold after these instances is broadlypositive, suggesting +10 to +11% subsequent performance over 6 months, Figure Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/ Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead anal