处于风险边缘：评估蒙古的“合理最坏情况”情景

At the Edge of Risk Assessing Mongolia’s “Plausible Worst-Case” ScenarioPublic Disclosure Authorized Migle PetrauskaiteHector PollittXinru Lin Trade, Competition, and BusinessGlobal DepartmentMay 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11370 Abstract This paper develops a plausible worst-case scenario for Mon-golia in which three major disasters—a sudden collapsein coal exports to China, a prolonged dzud (severe winterdisaster), and a severe flood in Ulaanbaatar—occur inquick succession. While each event has precedent in Mon-golia, an increasingly unstable climate raises the likelihoodof their overlap within the next 20 years. Conventionalestimates of climate damage fail to capture the country’sexposure to compounding economic shocks, which couldundermine development and disproportionately affect vul-nerable groups. This analysis finds that the convergence of these three crises could result in a 20 percent negativeshock to annual gross domestic product over a three-yearperiod, severely disrupting output and employment. Thefindings underscore the need for policy decisions based onworst-case scenarios rather than mean projections, empha-sizing proactive adaptation measures to mitigate systemicrisks. The paper highlights key vulnerabilities and calls fora shift from reactive crisis response to strategic prepared-ness, multi-sectoral coordination, and resilience planningto safeguard Mongolia’s economic future. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. At the Edge of Risk:Assessing Mongolia’s “Plausible Worst-Case” Scenario Migle Petrauskaite*, Hector Pollitt*, Xinru Lin* * World Bank Group, Washington DC Keywords:climate risk, cascading disasters, scenario modeling JEL classification: D81; E17; Q51; Q54 1Introduction Mongolia is grappling with escalating climate change impacts, macro financial vulnerabilities, andan under-diversified export base, leaving it susceptible to simultaneous shocks. This paper exploresa ‘plausible worst-case’ scenario where a series of catastrophic events unfolds in rapid succession.It is informed by the risk-based, actuarial approach to climate change and compound shocksoutlined in Trust and others (2024), which emphasizes the importance of stress testing economiesagainst low-probability but high-impact outcomes. Consistent with this approach, the scenariopresented here is not a forecast but an illustration of what could occur in the absence of adequatepreparation, as climate-related shocks become more frequent, severe, and interconnected. Severe climate-related impacts are already materializing at lower temperature increases thanpreviously expected (Ripple and others 2023). As a result, historical ‘tail’ risks—low-probability buthigh-impact events—are becoming more plausible. A growing body of academic literature highlightsthat such risks often occur in combination rather than isolation, with their interactions amplifyingeconomic and social impacts. For example, Zscheischler and others (2020) develop a widely usedconceptual framework for understanding compound climate extremes, while Acemoglu and others(2015) show how shocks in interconnected systems can generate nonlinear and disproportionatelosses.. A systems approach is thus essential to assess how these interconnected risks may amplifysocietal impacts (Trust and others 2024). Recent observations suggest that the world is rapidly approaching, if not already surpassing, the1.5°C temperature threshold (Armstrong McKay and others 2022). Compounding this is newevidence that Earth’s climate sensitivity may be higher than expected, implying that future warmingcould be more severe for any given concentration of greenhouse gases. The precise degree ofwarming we are committed to post-2030 remains uncertain, influenced by many factors, such as thepotential crossing of climate tipping points and the pace at which the energy transition progresses. As we near 1.5°C warming, the risk of concurrent climate shocks increases. This paper examines thepotential impact of negative tail outcomes. In complex systems, including both our naturalenvironment and economies, such tail outcomes are more probable than conventional modelssuggest (see e.g., Beinhocker 2007). Because models refl