拉丁美洲的财政分权和周期性：来自新区域预算数据库的证据

Fiscal Decentralizationand Cyclicality in LatinAmerica: Evidence from a Davi Bhering Buarque de Gusmao, Hector Perez-Saiz, Joe Ueand Valeria Visser WP/26/92 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026MAY IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Fiscal Decentralization and Cyclicality in Latin America: Evidence from a New Regional Budget Prepared byDavi Bhering Buarque de Gusmao,Hector Perez-Saiz, Joe Ue and Valeria Visser* Authorized for distribution by Fabian Valencia IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Using a newly constructed database of highly granular regional-level budgets, this paperdocuments the growing relevance of regional governments in Latin America over the past three decades andevaluates the implications for fiscal cyclicality. We find that regional governments exhibit lower revenueelasticity to national GDP than central governments, primarily due to the limited cyclicality of transfers. On the RECOMMENDED CITATION:Davi Bhering Buarque de Gusmao, Perez-Saiz, Ue and Visser,Valeria. “FiscalDecentralization and Cyclicality in Latin America: Evidence from a New Regional Budget Database.” IMF WORKING PAPERS Fiscal Decentralization andCyclicality in Latin America: Prepared byDavi Bhering Buarque de Gusmao, Hector Perez-Saiz, JoeUe and Valeria Visser Contents 1Introduction..................................................................................................................................................4 2Literature Review.........................................................................................................................................6 3.1Subnational-Level Budget Information for Subnational Governments................................................83.2Country-Level Budget Information for Subnational Governments......................................................93.3Additional Country-Level and Subnational-Level Demographic and Economic Information.............10 4Fiscal Decentralization Trends.................................................................................................................11 4.1Fiscal Decentralization in Global Perspective...................................................................................114.2Fiscal Decentralization in Latin America...........................................................................................134.3Transfer Dependence in Latin America............................................................................................16 5Empirical Results.......................................................................................................................................20 5.1Empirical Strategy.............................................................................................................................205.2Empirical Results..............................................................................................................................22 6Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................26 Annex.................................................................................................................................................................28 References.........................................................................................................................................................33 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDFIGURESFigure 1: Comparison of Subnational Databases (1989–2023)..........................................................................10Figure 2: Revenues in Subnational Governments Across Regions....................................................................12Figure 3: Expenditures in Subnational Governments Across Regions...............................................................12Figure 4: Regional Government Revenues.........................................................................................................13Figure 5: Regional Government Expenses.........................................................................................................14Figure 6: Regional Government Revenues Breakdown......................................................................................15Figure 7: Regional Government Expenditures Breakdown.................................................................................15Figure 8: Dispersion of Regional Government Revenues Across Regions, as Percent of Regional GDP.........16Figure 9: Regional Government Transfers A