三星2026年第一季度：HBM4进展超预期

Global Memory Samsung Electronics Co Ltd Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Outperform Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 005930.KS225,000 KRW005935.KS191,250 KRW Samsung 1Q26: HBM4 progress ahead of expectation Exceptional DRAM ASP.1Q26 results came in line with the preliminary numbers, but DRAMASP enjoying low 90s% QoQ increase far exceeds our expectation. Samsung sees supply gap to widen in 2027. Samsung sees agentic AI to acceleratefrom 2H26, leading to a sharp increase in memory demand from general servers & wideningsupply shortage into 2027. Samsung has signed LTAs with some customers, but didn’tprovide details due to NDA. Mobile and PC are expected to see a significant drop in unit thisyear, especially in 2H26, though it hopes resilient premium segment demand & resulting ASPrise can make its revenues grow YoY. HBM4 is ahead of our expectation & likely peers too.HBM4 enjoys price premium & hasbegun industry’s first shipment to NVIDIA. With volume expanding in 2H26, it’s guided to beover 50% of all HBM revenue from 3Q26 & about half of 2026’s total HBM sales, ahead ofour model & likely better than peers’ too. Samsung will consider profitability & other factorsto balance supply between conventional DRAM & HBM and believes HBM’s margin gap vs.conventional DRAM will significantly narrow next year, implying a price hike for HBM. HBM4Ewill begin sampling in 2Q26, with speed of 16Gb/s/pin. Capex is expected rise substantially this year, including a significant increase inequipment for both memory & for Pyeongtaek infrastructure, & also steady increase infoundry to ramp Taylor fab, as well as in R&D & additional infrastructure for future demand. No update on current shareholder return policy ending FY26but Samsung is activelydiscussing new policy for the next period. M&A was mentioned several times to drive futuregrowth and robotics seems one area of interest in addition to others. Bit growth was guided to remain moderate in 2Q26 as vendors are now supply constrained. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Samsung Electronics: We rate Samsung Electronics Outperform with target price of KRW 225,000. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Samsung Electronics Co Ltd We value Samsung Electronics with 1.6x of 2-year forward BVPS and arrive at price target of KRW 225,000 for its common shares,KRW191,250 for preferred shares, and US$3,888 for US ADR. SK Hynix Inc We value SK hynix with 1.5x of 2-year forward BVPS and arrive at price target of KRW1,150,000. Micron Technology Inc We value Micron with 2x of 2-year forward BVPS and arrive at price target of US$510. RISKS Samsung Electronics Co Ltd The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand or higher supply. Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory, especially in NAND, is a downside risk too. SK Hynix Inc The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand or higher supply. Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory, especially in NAND, is a downside risk too. Micron Technology Inc The biggest downside risk to our target price is an earlier end of favorable pricing environment, which can be a result of weakerdemand or higher supply. Investor sentiment and hence the valuation rewarded by investors is also a risk. China's progress inmemory, especially in NAND, is a downside risk too. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Larg