2026年第一季度德国市场快照

Contents PitchBook Data, Inc. MMarket overview2 Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President of Research and MarketIntelligence Paul CondraGlobal Head of Private Markets Research CCity comparison4 Nalin PatelDirector, EMEA Private CapitalResearch HPrivate markets5 MVC deal activity7 Institutional Research Group EVC exit activity Analysis PVC fundraising activity Nalin PatelDirector,EMEA Private CapitalResearchnalin.patel@pitchbook.com VPE deal activity Data VPE exit activity13 Charlie FarberManager, Data Analysis VPE fundraising activity 14 PCorporate acquisition activity Oscar AllawaySenior Data Analyst PEquity markets valuations16 Adi GeorgeAssociate Data Analyst pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on 21April 2026 Q4 2025 Germany Market Snapshot Q4 2025 France Market Snapshot Market overview Q1 2026 quarterly comparison Commentary Our Country Snapshot series provides an overview of macroeconomic and microeconomic trends in various countries across Europe and Asia-Pacific. In this report, we look at how public and private data points trended for Germany in Q1 2026. Here is what we highlight: Public equity marketHaving reached a record high at the start of Q1 2026, the DAX 40 has Macro fallen 7.4% YTD, the worst among our selected indices. Given thedeclines, the one-year DAX 40 return ended 31 March 2026 also fell to2.3%. By comparison, the top performer, the FTSE 100, returned 22.6%during the same period. Three-year returns were more closely alignedamong our selected indices, with the DAX 40 returning 13.2% on anannualised basis. The DAX 40 P/E ratio also dipped to 17.3x in Q12026, having previously risen for eight consecutive quarters. Last year,US tariffs weighed heavily on public markets, which have sincerebounded, and this year, the Iran war is creating significant volatility. Economic growth remained muted, with Q4 2025gross domesticproduct (GDP)growth at 0.3% QoQ. Overall GDP growth in 2025was0.2%, anothersign of the country’s fragile growth. Uncertaintysurrounding future US trade policies and geopolitical tensions are keyfactors that could hinder short-term growth. Consumer Price Indexinflation spiked to 2.7% in March 2026, the highest level sinceJanuary 2024, when it was 2.9%. Inflation had been closer to targetlevels at 1.9% in February 2026 and 2.1% in January 2026. But thelatest inflation rate has been driven up by a significant increase inenergy prices for German consumers. The prices of energy productswere 7.2% higher in March 2026 than in March 2025, with motor fuelprices increasing by 20% and heating oil surging by 44.4% in thesame period. On monetary policy, theEuropean Central Bankheld itsthree key interest rates at its March meeting, citing the Middle Eastconflict as a source of significant uncertainty, with upside risks toinflation and downside risks to growth. The deposit facility rateremains at 2%, with increases mooted in 2026. In other newsGermany’s historic loosening of its debt brake has unlocked significant defence spending. In 2025, parliament voted to amend thecountry’s constitution, removing borrowing limits to fundhigherdefence spending. Germany is projected to spend €162 billion on itsmilitary in 2029, up from €95 billion in 2025. The main factors citedare the threat from an expanding Russian military and broadergeopolitical concerns. We are already seeing the impact of greaterinterest and spending in the defence sector in private markets. Largerrounds are emerging in defence, robotics, space, and industrial AI.For example, Helsing, a VC-based AI defence firm, has raised €1.4billion since its founding and is currently valued at €12 billion. Private equity In Q1 2026,PE deal activity decreased 48% QoQ to €13.1 billion, anddealcount fell 19.4% QoQ to 183. Momentum had been building in2025, with PE deal value rising inthe last threequarters ofthe year.Q4 2025 PE deal valuein Germanyreached €25.2 billion, helpingoverall PE deal value in Europe hit a record high in 2025. However, Q12026 figures in Germany suggest uncertainty is creeping into thedealmaking environment. And with the conflict in the Middle Eastweighing on the global economy, we expect transactions involvinglarge PE-backed assets to be affected. Exit value crept up 9.5% QoQto €7.5 billion, whileexitcount dropped 34% to 31. Exit figures in Q1were comparable to recent quarterly figures—aside from the bumpershowing in Q3 2025, which was heavily skewed by the announcedsale of TK Elevator for €25 billion. At the time ofthiswriting,discussions regarding Kone’s purchase of TK Elevatorremainongoing, and figures could shift dramatically given the size of thesale. There was only one PE fund closure in Q1, and we expect figuresto pick up as the year progresses. 1.“How Russia’s Threat Has Seen Germany Become Europe’s Most Important Army,” BBC, AllanLittle, 26 March 2026. Venture capital Q1 2026 VC deal value came in strong at €4.1 billion, a 66.9% jumpQoQ despite a marginal decrease