压力下的可负担性：公用事业公司如何在管理不稳定的供应链的同时保护纳税人

How Utilities Can Protect the RatepayerWhile Managing Volatile Supply Chains The Era of Stable Electricity Bill is Over In the U.S, residential electricity prices have risen by 32% since 2020.1Forthe average household, that’s an extra $35 each month. This spike is not because households are using more electricity. The costof delivering power has increased, and the price spike shows no signs ofreversing. Nearly 4 million households are projected to face disconnection for non-payment in 2025, an increase of nearly half a million compared to theprevious year. One in six are already behind on utility bills, collectively owing $23 billion toelectric and gas utilities. For low-and middle-income families, energy nowaccounts for 6% to 10% of household income.2 Something other than broad price pressure is driving these prices. Understanding what utilities can doabout it requires separating costs outside their control from those within their control.This paper identifiesthat driver and lays out three moves senior leaders can take to measurably reduce cost exposureand give utilities a defensible story to tell regulators and ratepayers. What’s Driving Up Electricity Prices? There isn’t a single cause behind the rise.Instead, several pressures have converged: aginginfrastructure, fuel cost volatility, AI-driven loadgrowth, supply chain scarcity, and rising capitalcosts. Together, they compound one another andremain embedded in utility cost structures foryears. The following describes each driver based ondirectly observable data. The relative magnitudesare characterized directionally. The precise shareeach driver contributes to any individual utility’s ratedepends on its specific cost-of-service structure,which is determined in regulatory proceedings andvaries by jurisdiction. Top Three Drivers of Electricity Price Spikes Three drivers account for over three-quarters of the total increase: •Fuel and generation volatility•Infrastructure investment and operations•Other structural costs Each one tells a different story about why the bill is rising and whether utilitymanagement can do anything about it. Fuel and Generation Volatility Driver Fuel costs rise and fall with global gas markets. Utilities can hedge at themargins, but they cannot control Henry Hub. Gas now supplies 43% of U.S.power generation and often sets the marginal price in wholesale markets.3 When gas hit $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2022, more thantriple its 2020 price, those costs flowed straight to residential bills through fueladjustment clauses, with no rate case required.4 Prices have eased, but years of higher gas costs are now built into ratesettlements nationwide. Infrastructure Investment and Operations& Maintenance (O&M) Driver Unlike fuel costs, infrastructure costs do not reverse. When a utility replacesaging equipment, the cost enters the rate base and stays there for the life of theasset, typically 20 to 40 years. Distribution capital spending increased 160% between 2003 and 2023, andthe replacement pipeline is not shrinking.5Over 70% of U.S. transmissionlines are more than 25 years old, and 55% of distribution transformers are ator nearing the end of their 40-year design life, making sustained investment inreplacements unavoidable.6 On top of that, the ongoing cost of maintaining an aging system is substantial.Vegetation management alone runs at $7–9 billion per year industry-wide,7withstorm response and emergency repairs adding further pressure. Residential customers bear a larger share of these costs because they receivepower at a lower voltage, which requires more infrastructure per kilowatt-hourdelivered than commercial or industrial customers do. Other Structural Costs: Capacity Marketsand Return on Equity Driver The remainder reflects costs embedded in how the grid is financed andoperated. Data center load growth has driven capacity prices sharply higher. In PJM Interconnection’s latest capacity auction revenue rose 82%, with lessthan 5% of related infrastructure costs recovered from data center owners. Theremaining costs were passed on to all ratepayers.8 Separately, allowed Return on Equity (ROE), which accounts for 15–20% of theresidential bill, also remains elevated relative to investors’ requirements. RMIestimates that a 1% reduction in allowed ROE would save customers about $4billion nationwide each year.9 Neither of these is within the utility’s operational control. The One Driver That UtilitiesCan Control In a supplier-drivenmarket, reactiveprocurement isexpensive. Thedifference is that,unlike other costpressures in thesystem, this is onelever utilities can stillcontrol. Utility management operates within a largely fixed costenvironment. Fuel costs are set by commodity markets. Infrastructureinvestment costs are determined by asset age,regulatory mandates, and capital plans approved yearsin advance. Capacity charges are set by regional gridoperators running market auctions.