预计从2016年第1季度开始有所改善

Zoomlion (1157 HK/000157 CH) Expect an improvement from 1Q26 In the post-1Q26 results call, Zoomlion explained thatthelack of growth inChina’smarket was due to the continuous shift of focus to overseas.On themargin side,Zoomlionattributed thegross margin contraction in 1Q26toFX,which isashort-term impact as FX gains (related tothe previous sales) will berecognized in the upcoming finance income.On the other hand, certain large-size product sales in overseas (such as tower cranes and crawler cranes) wereonly affected by capacity constraint, and therefore delivery of such products in2Q26 will help both revenue and margin.We believe the overall growthpotentialin overseas remainsattractive. We fine-tuned our earnings forecastin 2026E/27E by-2%/-3%.OurTPsfor Zoomlion A/H are slightly reduced toRMB11.8/HK$9.1 (fromRMB12.0/HK$9.2), based on unchanged 2026E targetP/E multiple of18.6xfor A-share and 30% discount for H-share.MaintainBUY. China Capital Goods 1Q26earningshighlight.Revenue in1Q26grew7% YoY to RMB12.9bn,as thelack of growthin China offset the growthinoverseas(+13% YoY toRMB7.4bn). Overseas revenue accounted for 57% of total revenue in1Q26, slightly down from61.5% in4Q25. Blended gross margincontracted1ppt YoY to 27.7%. Given thelack of disposal gain in 1Q26(RMB558mnin 1Q25), EBIT dropped29% YoY toRMB1bn. Net profit declined37% YoYto RMB884mn,due to FX loss arising from the appreciation of RMB. Capex planin 2026:Zoomlion expects thecapex will be similar to that in2025.Key investment areas include capacity for mining machinery andagricultural machinery. Key risks:(1)weaker-than-expected demand inChina; (2) slowdowninoverseasgrowth. Related reports:Zoomlion–First take: 2025 earnings +36% in-line; overseas revenue surged 60% in4Q25–31 Mar 2026 (link) Capital Goods-Strong export of earth-moving machinery in Feb–9 Mar 2026(link) Capital Goods-Strong momentum of non-earth-moving machinery sales in Jan–16Feb 2026 (link) Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Valuation Source:Bloomberg,company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Bloomberg,company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Bloomberg,company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst coveredin this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s)covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer ofany of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD:Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broadmarket benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiaryof CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important DisclosuresThere are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indicationof future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMre