农林牧渔行业：2026Q2农业细分领域重点关注清单

农林牧渔 2026Q2农业细分领域重点关注清单 一、农业核心影响因素 1、农资：本轮能源危机向农业市场传导最核心变量为化肥与农药，战事拉长或导致核心出口国产生严重溢出效应，玉米等谷物预计转向大豆等固氮作物种植。 2、天气：4-6月赤道中东太平洋区域海温的累计升温幅度，能预判三季度是否会形成厄尔尼诺事件以及强度。 二、关注清单 作者 分析师王佳博SAC：S1070526030004邮箱：wangjiabo@cgws.com 三、投资观点 1、生猪：能繁母猪去化进度偏慢，仍有明确去化空间；猪粮比持续承压，收储有望加码；比价低位带动猪肉消费边际回升，有望遏制价格颓势。 2、橡胶：产区杯胶/胶水价格降幅有限，合成胶高溢价带来超预期替代需求；天胶存补涨空间；轮胎出口有望超预期，二季度去库速度大概率超预期。 3、种业：玉米、水稻制种面积延续收缩；转基因种植面积扩容带动种子价值提升，十五五种业规划落地在即；粮食价格存小幅上行空间。 4、宠物：2026年为功能粮发展提速元年，具备研发、营销优势的企业业绩有望超预期；海外出口订单持续修复，2026年有望迎来估值与业绩共振。 5、食糖：巴西新榨季制糖比或随油价上调而下降；亚洲主产国播种面积稳中趋降；我国非标糖源管控高压延续，进口利润维持区间波动。 风险提示：1、国际供应链风险加剧；2、下游消费市场表现疲软；3、政策调控不及预期；4、极端天气风险。 内容目录 1.农业核心影响因素.........................................................................................................................................41.1农资....................................................................................................................................................41.2天气....................................................................................................................................................42.生猪.............................................................................................................................................................52.1能繁母猪的去化速度............................................................................................................................52.2收储的累积效应...................................................................................................................................52.3猪肉在肉类中的相对优势......................................................................................................................63.天然橡胶.......................................................................................................................................................63.1产区开割进度及加工情况......................................................................................................................63.2合成胶高库存开始去化.........................................................................................................................73.3欧盟关税政策和地缘冲突影响下检验轮胎需求韧性...............................................................................73.4提前进入季节性去库............................................................................................................................84.种业.............................................................................................................................................................84.1制种面积降幅......................................................................................................................................84.2转基因商业化进程................................................................................................................................94.3种业十五五规划...................................................................................................................................94.4大田粮食种植面积&价格走向..............................................................................................................105.宠物食品.....................................................................................................................................................105.1功能新品陆续发布关注实际动销........................................................................................................105.2国内订单逐步修复关注东南亚出口....................................................................................................116.食糖............................................................................................................................................................126.1国际油价巨震下巴西制糖比选择.........................................................................................................126.2亚洲主产国播种面积..........................................................................................................................126.3糖浆、预拌粉合理管控.......................................................................................................................137.风险提示.....................................................................................................................................................13 图表目录 图表1：中国化肥综合批发价格指数................................................................................................................4图表2：中国草甘膦(95%原药)市场价（元/吨）..............................................................................................4图表3：NOAA:NINO3.4海表温度距平（摄氏度）............................................................................................4图表4：NOAA:NINO3海表温度距平（摄氏度）..............................................................................................4图表5：中国能繁母猪存栏量（万头）.............................................................................................................5图表6：大中城市猪粮比价及预警区间.............................................................................................................5图表7：全国猪肉及鸡肉市场价比价（元/千克）..................................................................................