您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [摩根士丹利亚洲]:1Q26:收入、PPOP及利润恢复双位数增长;维持首选评级 - 发现报告

1Q26:收入、PPOP及利润恢复双位数增长;维持首选评级

2026-04-26 摩根士丹利亚洲 阿杰
报告封面

Richard Xu, CFAEquity Analyst Beryl Yang +852 2848-6729 1Q26: Revenue, PPOP and profitgrowth back to double-digitgrowth; maintain Top Pick Beryl.Yang@morganstanley.comChiyao HuangEquity Analyst +852 3963-2224 Chiyao.Huang@morganstanley.comChenqian LiuResearch Associate Strengthens our thesis Top Pick Direction of next 12-monthconsensus EPS Impact to our thesisSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Financial results versus consensus China Financials |China Industry ViewAttractivePrice targetRmb45.00Up/downside to price target (%)39Shr price, close (Apr 24, 2026)Rmb32.3052-Week RangeRmb32.92-23.77Sh out, dil, curr (mn)6,604Mkt cap, curr (mn)Rmb213,309.2EV, curr (mn)Rmb239,228.2Avg daily trading value (mn)Rmb872Fiscal Year Ending12/2412/25e12/26e12/27e Key Takeaways2025 full-year results in line with the pre-announcement, with revenue and profit up 8% and 8.1% yoy, respectively.1Q26 revenue and profit rebounded to double-digit yoy growth, up 10.2% and NIl increased a solid 14.4% yoy in 1Q26, with a 5bps qoq rebound in NIM. Loan balance rose 15.7% yoy, aided by continued market share gains. 1Q26fee income rebounded 81.7% yoy, led by wealth management and assetmanagement business. Investment income remained under some pressure butrecovered qoq. Asset quality was stable, with the NPL ratio flat at O.76% and NPL coverage ratiohigh at 369.4%. The loan loss reserve ratio was largely flat yoy at 2.8%. Continued market share gains: Total loan rose 9.4% qoq in 1Q26, vs. 3.2% industry-wide. Corporate loan growth remained strong at 16.6% qoq, while bills werereduced by 12.1%; that likely drove higher loan yield, in our view. Deposit increased10.6% qoq in 1Q26, vs. 4.2% industry-wide. Related reports: The retail client base saw solid expansion. Retail AUM grew 13.1% yoy in 2025. PBAUM and the number of PB clients increased 16.4% and 17.9% yoy, respectively Bank of Ningbo Co.Ltd:Small Gem Shines BigAgain (17 Mar 2026) Overall assetqualitywas stable:TheNPL ratio was flat qoq at O.67% and thespecial mentioned loan ratio declined 8bps to 1.06% in 1Q26. The overdue 90 days+loan ratio fell 2bps HoH to 0.58% in 2H25, with the OD loan coverage ratio higher at484%.The NPL/0D 90 days ratio increased to 130%. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a singlefactor in making their investmentdecision. We view current valuation at 0.87x 2026E P/B as attractive, reflecting double-digitloan and profit growth.We remain OW and reiterate Bank of Ningbo as our TopPick. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Bank of Ningbo 1Q26 results We continue to use a three-stage dividend discount model, probability-weighted 60% base 20% bull, 20% bear. The discount rate is 11.4% in the base case, and we assume 13.5% forsecond-stage and 13% for long-term ROE with a 61% dividend payout ratio in the long run. Ourprice target implies 2026E P/B of 1.2x. tals.Better-than-expected NIM and asset qualityness revenue. Higher default risks from SME and retail business expansion.Pricing pressure from destructive competition in the market. The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore)Pte. (Registration number199206298Z)and/orMorgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibilty for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research)and/or Morgan Stanley TaiwanLimited and/or Morgan Stanley & Colnternational plc, SeoulBranch,and/or Morgan Stanley Australia Limited(A.B.N.67003 734 576,holderof Australian financialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 OO9 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 24O813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate ldentification No (CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of ndia ('SEBI) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No.INHO00001105); Stock Broker(SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. I