2025年第四季度业绩：去库存可能随之而来

Pacific Lillian LouEquity Analyst organstanley.com+852 2848-6502Wilkins Tong 4O25 Results: Likely Destockingto Follow Equity AnalystWilkins.Tong@morganstanley.comCarlos Liu, CFAesearch Associate +852 2848-7408 Carlos.Liu@morganstanley.comShanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co. (600809.SS, +852 2848-5206 Unchanged Direction of next 12-monthconsensus EPS Financial results versus consensusSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 2025 sales growth of 7.5% was better than market consensus of 3% and MSe of 2%. Net profit was flat yoy, generally in line with consensus and MSe.In 4Q25, sales rose 24.5% yoy while net profit fell 5.7%. Despite an easier comp base from 4Q24 (-10%), such sales growth could mean channel stuffing.....Considering: 1) industry demand contraction and destocking; 2) its strong sales growth in home base Shanxi and flat cash inflow from selling products.For1Q26/2Q26,as demand remainsweak based on our channel checks, we expect likely sequential slowdown or decline with the destocking pressure The dividend payout ratio was 65% in 2025 vs. 60% in 2024. It issued 2025-27shareholder return plan of no less than 65% dividend payout. Sales growth in 2025 was from 22% yoy volume growth. ASP declined 12% yoy. By region, Lliquor sales outside Shanxi in 2025 was +12.6% yoy (65% of Liquor sales)vs -0.8%% yoy in Shanxi. In 4Q25, Shanxi sales +49% yoy and outside Shanxi sales+12%. Core brand "Fen Wine" SKUs sales was +7.7% yoy (97% of Liquor sales) in 2025,while other brands sales was +3% yoy. In 4Q25,"Fen Wine" SKUs sales was +23%and other brands were +45%. Margins: 2025 operating margin -2.8ppt mainly on -2.7ppt in gross margin whilecontraction, offset by 4.8ppt opex ratio saving. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect theobjectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch.Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Gross margin decline was driven by downward mix within core"Fen Wine" SkUs andother brands: in 2025 "Fen Wine" brand gross margin was -1.4ppt yoy, and otherbrands saw 0.6ppt decline. Customer advances wereRmb7bn by4Q25vs.Rmb5.8bn in3Q25and Rmb8.7bn in4Q24. The distributor number rose from 4,359 in 3Q25 to 4,455 in 4Q25 withadditions mainly in outside Shanxi markets. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Cash inflow from selling products was -1% yoy at Rmb6.4bn in 4Q25. Net cashposition was Rmb9.8bn vs.Rmb6.3bn in4Q24. Fen Wine Quarterly P&L Base case, discounted cashflow (DCF)methodology.This method incorporates our long-term view of the company's growth sustainability and the effect of potential risks on earnings. Weassume a WACC of 12% (derived from a 3% risk-free rate, 11.1% risk premium) and a terminalgrowth rate of 2.0% Faster mixupgrade in Shanxi province from Lao Bai Fen to PanamaStronger operating leverage vs.peers, helped by GPM expansion and operational lev-erage Intensifying competition in the premium segment The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibilty forits contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore)Pte. (Registration number199206298Z)and/orMorgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/or Morgan Stanley TaiwanLimited and/or Morgan Stanley& Colnternational plc, SeoulBranch,and/or Morgan Stanley AustraliaLimited(A.B.N.67003734 576,holderof Australian financialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 OO9 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices license No. 24O813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate ldentification No (CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of ndia ('SEBI) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No.INHO00001105); Stock Broker(SEBI Stock Broker Registration No. INZO00244438),Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration No.INM000011203),and depository participant with National Securities Depository Limited (SEBIRegistration No. IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021) having registered office