创新、就业与通胀：来自250年颠覆史的教训

JimReid HeadofGlobalEconomics&ThematicResearch(+44)-20-7547-2943jim.reid@db.com -Economy一lmmigration-Trade-lnflation15 Thenext5yearsBeyond5years50%50%45% 3200StartofIndustrialRevolution1 4,000,00050000 -Realconsumptionwages1600 JapanCanada Continental currency in Index 2017=100Index2017=100140000PersonalComputers/Tablets&PeripheralEquipPriceIndex(lhs)140 Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors.Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources.Forfurther information regarding disclosures relevant toDeutsche Bank Research,please visit ourglobal disclosurelook-uppageon ourwebsite at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthis information before investing.AnalystCertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be rel provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for the accuracy or security controls ot those websites.If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or wfrom a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act as principalfor its own account or as agent for anotherperson. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the view this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this research report. Deutsissues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of communicdiffer from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also bdebt or equity securities of the issuers it writes on. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking, trading aprincipal trading revenues.Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are sub change without notice. Deutsche Bank provides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimes have shorter-tideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings. Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls ideas on the Research Website(https://research.db.com/ResearchD, and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the covered company's page. A Catalyst Call idea represents a high-conviction belief by athat a stock will outpertorm or underpertorm the market and/or a specitied sector over a time frame of no less than two weeks and no more than three months. In addition to Catalyst Canalysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with Deutsche Bank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-temedium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or invreturn as described herein. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if an opinion, forecast or estimate changesinaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in market conditions and in both general and company-specific economic prospects make it difficult to update research at defined inUpdates are at the sole discretion of the coverage analyst or of the Research Department Management, and the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals. This report is provinformational purposes only and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. It is not an offer or a solicitation of anbuy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst's judgment. The financial instrudiscussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own info