2026 Annual Retirement Policy Conference-保障子孙后代的退休生活嘉宾演讲PPT

Welcome and Opening Remarks Michael Hairston Board Vice Chair, NIRS Senior Pension Specialist, National Education Association Keynote Address Social Security at the Crossroads : Securing a Program Americans Can Trust andRely on for Retirement Security Honorable Martin O’Malley Former Social Security Commissioner and Governor of Maryland Panel Conversation Putting the Squeeze on Retirement:Affordability, Housing, and Inflation •Kathryn Edwards, Labor Economist,BloombergColumnist, and Host of Optimist EconomyPodcast•Jessica Lautz, National Association of Realtors Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President ofResearch•Michelle Singletary,Washington PostPersonal Finance Columnist•Moderator: Nancy Marshall-Genzer,MarketplaceCorrespondent Networking Break Keynote Address Navigating the Growing Uncertainty:Retirement Security in a Changing Economy Christian Weller Professor and Chair of Public Policy and Public Affairs Department ofUniversity of Massachusetts Boston The Savings Implications of GrowingUncertainties Christian E. Weller, Ph.D. University of Massachusetts Boston Overview: A Vicious Cycle of Uncertainty and Declining PersonalFinancial Security •The past decades have seen rising economic uncertainties in the labor market, health careand savings. These growing uncertainties did not come out of nowhere:•Economic policy uncertaintycontributes to slower hiring, production and consumption growth as well as higher interest rates, e.g. for mortgages.•More corporate profit seekingcreates economic risks for workers, e.g. with longer unemployment spells and fewer benefits.•Business instabilityhas contributed to rising cash hoarding and less net investments,eroding the basis for productivity, job and wage growth.•Not enough attention to health riskshas contributed to rising disability rates andgrowing climate risk exposure.•Insufficient policy action to build wealth:•Cuts to Social Security due to rising full retirement age since 2000.•Only a few states have enacted state-sponsored retirement plans to offset fallingSocial Security benefits.•Health insurance leaves increasing costs with households•Housing costs rise, making homeownership often unaffordable. •Widespread uncertainty and greater chances of financial losses make it more difficult forpeople to plan, too–too little predictability and too much risk (and costs). They focus on theshort term and face difficulties saving enough. Rising Policy Uncertainty in Past Three Decades More Economic Policy Uncertainty Leads to Slower Hiring, Production Growth,Consumption Growth and Worse Consumer Outlook Median 12-Month Growth of Key Economic Measures When Uncertainty is Above orBelow Average, 1985 to 2026 Ratio of Mortgage Rates to Effective Federal Runds Rate Since Federal Funds Rate wasAbove 2 Percent, 2022 to 2026 Increasing Corporate Emphasis on Profit Leaves Less Money For OtherThings Such as Hiring Corporations Hoard More Cash as Protection Against Risks Share Of Liquid Assets Out Of Total Corporate Assets, Non-financial Corporations, 1952to 2026 With Slower Hiring, Unemployed Workers Look Longer for a New Job Average Length of Unemployment (in Weeks) by Business Cycle, 1949 to 2026 Net Business Investment Also Falls to Lowest Levels on Record, Harming Growth Less Assistance for Households to Build Wealth •The Social Security Full Retirement Age started to increase for those born in 1938or later. That is, benefit cuts started in 2000. •Only some states have put in place state-sponsored IRAs, while retirement planparticipation rates remain relatively low, especially for Black and Latino workers. •Other savings incentives are limited, complicated and upside-down, providing theleast help to those who need it the most. •Health insurance premiums swing wildly, hospital costs typically rise faster thaninflation, middle-class families face long-term care risks on their own, and climaterisks sharply drive-up homeowners’ insurance premiums. •Homeownership has become less affordable, especially since the GreatRecession: less construction, house prices outpacing wages and, more recently,high mortgage rates. Health Insurance Premiums Swing Wildly and Hospital Prices OutpaceOverall Inflation House Prices Have Outpaced Wage Growth for Most of the Past TwoDecades Changes in Short Term Savings Fell Behind House Price Growth Over the PastFour Decades People Have Become More Worried about the Future withPandemic/Inflation/Policy Uncertainty Mental Health Struggles Make it Harder to Save for Emergencies Mental Health Counseling/Treatment and Financial Security, 2020 to 2024 Policy Implications •Many people are caught in a vicious cycle of rising uncertainty, greater needs to save,increasing mental stresses and fewer opportunities to build wealth. •This leads to several policy implications: •Reduce uncertainties wherever possible, making the economy more predictable.•Strengthen social insurance mechanisms, including Social Security, M