美洲石油：2025年“千桶俱乐部”——接近完美的一半？

Americas Oil: 2025 "Thousand Club" - nearly halfway to perfect? barrelsofoil-equivalentdailyproduction in2025(ie.,powerfulwells)andtermthemthe"Thousand ClubBasins or reservoirs withplentiful thousandclub wells representeconomicallyattractivetargets.Companieswithplentifulthousandclubwellsrepresentpotentiallyattractive equities. +1917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com wells rises each year (Exhibits 1-2). The share of thousand club wells in the overallpopulation rose again this year to 48% of all wells drilled as fewer wells are drilledversus 2024 with a slightly higher number of thousand club wells. This is consistent withtechnical and operational improvements anda discouragementof"rank exploration"Wemay see a year (2026?)in which thousand club wells are the majority. This is a truetechnological revolution -from 5% at the"start of shale"to ~50% in around a decade. +19173448306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com In terms of basins and reservoirs (Exhibits 3-9),ourkey conclusions are as follows. (a)We know the key states (TX, NM, ND, PA), basins (e.g., Permian, Appalachian, Williston)andreservoirs (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken) from which the best and oiliest wells arise. (b) Thehunt for new resource plays continues to be exceedingly difficult.We sawsome good wellsemerging inCanada (specificallyinMontneyandDuverneyreservoirs)buttherewereonlyahandful of thousand club wells drilled in these basins. In terms of companies (Exhibits 10-16), we note thefollowing. (a)around 76% ofthethousand club oil wells were drilled by publicly traded E&Ps. (b) XOM emerged as the topoperator in our survey with EOG 2nd and COP 3rd in the ranking. (c) EOG had the highest'power metric'(our weightingof best combination of quality&quantity)with XOM 2nd,andCOP 3rd.The top 7are responsible for~41% of the total"thousand club"wells. In terms of returns, we note the unit economics of drilling thousand club wellsremainattractive. In terms of industry structure, there remain 50+publicly traded companies drillingshale wells in the same key basins and reservoirs with the same focus on returning cashtoshareholders. Synergies (within the basin and inside the corporate office) could continue toencourage the trend of consolidation that we have seen in the pastfewyears. Digging deeper into specific reservoirs, we see decreasing 1k club well activity in 7 of thetop 10 reservoirs with the largest decline in the gas-rich Marcellus reservoir,from 583wells in 2024 to 489 wells in 2025, a 16% decline (Exhibit 17). We hypothesize that take-awayconstraints allownewwellstobechokedback. However,we see increased oily activity in Montney, Niobrara,Anadarko,and Duvernay,which have seen y-o-y growth in oily 1k club well count (Exhibit 18). The number of oily1k wells was at~7000wells in2025 comparedto 4130 wells in2024,up by 69% y-0-ywith companies exercising discipline in exploratory activities. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS EOG,andKOS WeextractthepopulationofNorthAmerican wells (strictlyUS and Canada,so excludingforexampleMexico andSaintPierre& includedthelater 2024 wellstomakeour analysis continuous fromour similarpieces in the lastseveral years,since wells drilledlater in the year aren't reported by year-end.This failure to adhere strictly to a calendar year is simply a result of the lag betweenactual well results andthefilingofthoseresults. representative of an economically highly attractiveflow rate given sufficiently low costs.Exhibit 2 shows thata cut off of 1,o00B0EPDseparatesthebest~9,000wellsfromthetotal populationof~19,000 (i.e.,thebest48%orso-amarked improvementfrom past years...Exhibit 1). We point out that the number of wells in the "Thousand Club," though, has remained relatively flat Exhibit 3 shows that the"thousand club"isdominatedbyfour states-Texas,New Mexico,Alberta and North Dakota comprisingmore than two-thirds of the membership. EXHIBIT 5: Permian reservoirs (Spraberry, Bone Spring,Wolfcamp)dominate 2025OilyThousandClubbyReservoir,100%=6,339 2025 Thousand Club Count by Basin Exhibits 16 tracks performance of thetop 7operators overthe last 5 years.The top7operators drilled~3,600 thousand clubwells or~41%of total thousand club wells in2025 of 17 (themost common 17,followed by nextmost common, etc.).Following the tables, we describe the reservoirs (grouped bybasins). References to"Bernstein" orthe"Firm"in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Africa Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand SocieteGénéraleBernstein is part