全球航空科技：中东战争几乎肯定会导致业绩指引下调……但幅度有多大？（第一季度预览）

Global Air Tech: Middle East war all but assures guidance cuts...But how steep? (Q1 preview) A distinctly worse earnings environment for airlines, following war in the Middle East, is setto compress earnings for air tech companies. The effects are both direct (cancellation ofMiddle East flying) and indirect (s doubling of fuel costs creating the need to cut capacityand support yields). Early signs abound: Delta cutting 3.5% off Q2 capacity plans, Lufthansashutting Cityline and permanently retiring 27 aircraft. That, in our view, is going to requireguidance cuts at both Amadeus and Sabre. We take 2026 EBITDA down by c. 7% acrossboth companies; should the war extend longer than expected, or consumer spending ontravel fall in response to broader inflationary pressures, further reductions cannot be ruledout. Alex Irving, CFA+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com Antoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 52antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Middle Eastwar creates volume headwind, with effects both direct...The first twomonths of the year were basically fine. War in the Middle East has changed the outlook. Theimmediate impact is, of course, the reduction in Middle East flying. Many airlines from otherregions have cancelled flights to affected countries, while airlines based in the region arefar short or pre-war activity levels. For the two giants, Emirates is -30% and Qatar -50%.Booking numbers should suffer more, as volumes are reported net of cancellations. ExpectQ1 GDS bookings flat to negative, with passengers boarded (PBs) flat to slightly positive.For Amadeus, the Middle East represents a high single digit share of both bookings andPBs. ...And indirect, with capacity cuts beyond the Middle East coming.The typical airlineruns at a single digit EBIT margin and spends ~25% of its revenue on fuel. Jet fuel priceshave doubled: all else equal, and before the impact of hedging (for those thatdohedge),margins fall well into the negative double digits. That is clearly unsustainable, and pricesneed to rise. Airlines largely lack pricing power, and the only reliable way to get unit revenueup is to reduce capacity. Some airlines are already announcing this – beyond the MiddleEast. Delta took capacity plans down by 3.5% in Q2, and Lufthansa is shutting its subsidiaryCityline and permanently retiring and its 27 aircraft (A319s and CRJ900s). If conditionspersist, cuts in the 5-10% range may become plausible. Several carriers, particularly inEurope, are still supported by fuel hedges, but they will become increasingly exposed tospot prices over time. If the industry resists voluntary capacity cuts, they will likely becomeinvoluntary, as weaker airlines cease to exist. Guidance needs to come down.Against poorer industry conditions, the transactionalrevenues of both Amadeus and Sabre are at risk. Guidance provided at FY results looksnear-certain to be cut. Our numbers include what should be seen as a modestly optimisticscenario: an end to the war at some point this quarter, with fuel prices beginning toreduce, thus mitigating the most severe capacity cuts. We also implicitly assume consumerspending on travel remains healthy, avoiding a significant inflation-driven compression indiscretionary spending. There is a risk that numbers will need to come down further, shouldeither of these assumptions prove false. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS For Q1, we expectAmadeusEBITDA to come in marginally below consensus (-4%), mainly reflecting a larger impact fromthe current Middle East war. PBs and bookings were tracking broadly in line with Q4 exit rates until the outbreak of the war,after which PB growth in the region turned distinctly negative, and a spike in cancellations pushed net bookings negativetoo (bookings are reported net of cancellations). Overall, we see PBs slightly above flat, with bookings slightly negative in thequarter. This is driven overwhelmingly by the Middle East (HSD% of volumes), with other regions remaining mostly resilient.Revenue per PB should remain strong, supported by commercial activity and implementations, alongside inflation indexation onexisting contracts. On the outlook, revenue growth at constant currency guidance is likely to be revised downward: we could seethis MSD in Air IT (from HSD), Hospitality remaining LDD, and LSD growth in Air Distribution (from mid to high single digit). EPSguidance is also likely to be revised downward; we now see this as likely HSD growth (from LDD growth). Sabreis more US-centric, and therefore less exposed to the war in the March quarter — though not immune. Importantly, USairlines have already started to flag capacity cuts (e.g. Delta revising plans down 3.5% for Q2). While American Airlines, Sabre’smost important customer, has not yet announced similar reductions, it would be reasonable to expect similar moves. We arebelow consensus on Q1 EBITDA (-4%). We see Sabre as likely to revise down its $585m EBITDA guidance, with also downsiderisk to its mid-sing