美国消费者策略：面对地缘政治冲突，美国消费者并非避风港——何去何从？

U.S. Consumer Strategy: In the face of geopolitical conflict, U.S.Consumer has not been a safe haven - Where to from here? Well, the world has changed yet again since we published our inaugural U.S.consumer strategy report in early December 2025.Back then (and it seems oh so longago!), the main broadbased strategic themes that would determine the best positioningacross the U.S. Consumer discretionary and staples spaces were related to 1) the expectedtrajectory fortech stocks,2) the outlook fortariffs, 3) the increasingbifurcation of theU.S. consumer,and 4) thepossibility of further interest rate reductions. Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com We also had some themes that were more sector specific –food at home vs. food awayfrom home inflation, GLP-1 drugs, SNAP cutbacks, and Make America Healthy Againin packaged food and restaurants, the upcomingWorld Cup and 250thanniversary ofthe Declaration of Independencefor hotels. Plus the EPA’s proposedRenewable FuelStandard for 2026/27. Callum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com At the start of 2026, it certainly seemed as though our thoughts on capitulation in ourlast report were being borne out, asConsumer Staples bounced sharply in the firsttwo months of the year,as value-investors sought out sectors that had underperformedmeaningfully in 2025. However, somewhat surprisingly,both U.S. Consumer Staplesand Discretionary have traded off more than the market since the onset of theconflict at the end of February.This is surprising as it flies in the face of Consumer(and particularly Staples) being something of a safe haven. The dominant themes are nowglobal geopolitical risk& how this might affect the global economy & consumer/investorconfidence, as well as howspiking oil pricescould have affect specific sectors. Zhihan Ma, CFA+1 917 344 8303zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com So in this report, we kick off with a quick look atwhich subsectors across the U.S.Consumer and Discretionary space are more and less defensive,which seem to bemost correlated withoil price movements, and finally which seem tied totech sectorstock movements. The main message that emerges from this analysis seems to be thatifoil prices continue to move upwards, then Food Retail may be the safest place to be,but if the conflict is resolved, smaller cap names will likely outperform larger names. Trevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com Ryan Dou+1 917 344 8451ryan.dou@bernsteinsg.com Overall, we recommend anoverall modest overweight across both ConsumerDiscretionary and Consumer Staples, with a greater emphasis on Staples. A quickresolution will clearly favor Discretionary names, while a more protracted conflict will favorStaples names. Investors currently seem to be leaning towards a quick resolution, in whichboth sectors could benefit given the pressure on both sectors seen since the start of theconflict. Within these two spaces, we’d recommend a focus onApparel Retail incl. Off-price, Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines and Textiles, Apparel and Luxury Goodswithinthe U.S. Discretionary space andBroadline Retail (which is now less crowded than itwas), Meat and Dairy, Soft Beveragesand Food Distributorswithin Staples. Cinnie Lin+1 917 344 8567cinnie.lin@bernsteinsg.com As for specific names in each of these sectors, our fundamental analysts are recommendingTJX, TPR, NKE, MAR, H, RCL, WMT, COST and PFGCfor this year. For more individualnames recommended by our fundamental analysts in each of the subsectors that we cover,please see the commentary from individual analysts below. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate BRBR, CPB, MDLZ, MKC, SJM, SMPL, ADS, BURL, NKE, ONON, TJX, TPR, STZ, CUERVO*.MM, ABI.BB, HEIA.NA,DGE.LN, RI.FP, RCO.FP, CPR.IM, CAVA, CMG, DRI, PFGC, QSR, SBUX, USFD, WING, MAR, H, RCL, COST, DG, DOL.CN, LOW,and WMT Outperform. We rate DECK Underperform. We rate CAG, GIS, HSY, KHC, LW, TSN, PM, MO, CPRI, LULU, PTON, ROST,SFIX, PM, MO, TAP, BF/B, SAM, DPZ, MCD, SYY, WEN, YUM, HLT, IHG.LN, CCL, DLTR, FIVE, TGT, and HD Market-Perform. Table Of Contents Summary......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5Sector Correlations with S&P, Tech, and Oil Prices.....................................................................................................................................................7Commentary from our U.S. Consumer analysts...........................................................................................................................