中国房地产：房价企稳不仅限于上海

EquitiesREMD Home price stabilisation not just in Shanghai China ◆Home price stabilisation in more cities will support sentimentimprovement Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050 ◆We think markets are progressing steadily towards theequilibrium, without the help frompolicy boost Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918 ◆Prefer CRL, C&D,and Seazen−all rated Buy Stephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 Broadened home price stabilisation.March NBS home price data is encouraging:the number of cities recording positive month-on-month growth increased to 14(primary) and 13 (secondary), up from 10 and 2 inFebruary,respectively,indicatingabroader stabilisation trend. While investors have questioned whether Shanghai’sstrength can extend to other cities, we believe these results should reinforceconfidence thatthe market is nearing an inflection point and could support higher riskappetite.Lookingahead, in addition to April-May sales,uplift inupgrader-ledsecondary transactionsand rent stabilisation that Beike will watchfor(seeKEHoldings–HSBC GIS 2026 key takeaways, 15 April2026), we think strong luxuryproject sales in tier-2 cities–such as C&D’s project in Hangzhou–and salesimprovementon theoutskirtsoftier-1 cities could signala firmermarket recovery andboost investor sentiment. Charlotte Ye*AssociateGuangzhou * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations. Investor feedback from HSBC GIS.Interest in China property was strong at HSBCGlobalInvestment Summit 2026, with investor discussions focused on the durabilityof sales momentum and whether prices are bottoming, drawing comparisons withHong Kong’s recovery(seeHK & mainland China Property–Sellers hold back,13 April 2026).Unlike prior mini-cycles, investors increasingly share our view thatpolicy is no longer the sole catalyst for recovery. With sellers less pressured to exitand buyer participation improving, we see a stronger foundation for pricestabilisation, with secondary-market resilience likely to feed into new-home demand(seeFrom‘exit’to‘upgrade’, 24 March 2026). On stock picks,some investors areconsidering positioning ahead of the physical market by revisiting mid-cap developersconcentrated in healthier cities/areas and with lower inventory impairment risk. Stock picks.Wecontinue to prefer CRL and C&D (bothratedBuy) amongdevelopers due to their higher earnings visibility and advantages in higher-endproducts. However, we acknowledge thathigh-beta names could benefit moreoverthe short-term in case of any material positive news.Wealsolike Seazen (Buy) for itsresilientshoppingmall portfolio in lower-tier cities. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited This report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Valuation charts Valuation andrisks Disclosureappendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Oliver Yu, Michelle Kwok and Stephen Wang, CFA Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investor