日本食品行业投资者报告：聚焦成本通胀韧性与资本政策变化

Food: Focus on Cost Inflation Resilience andChanges in Capital Policy Overweight Morinaga Milk Industry (2264, Top Pick), Kikkoman (2801), Ajinomoto (2802), Nissui (1332), Fuji Oil (2607), Nichirei (2871), ToyoSuisan (2875) Equal-weight Kewpie (2809), Meiji Holdings (2269), Yamazaki Baking (2212), NH Foods (2282), Nissin Foods Holdings (2897), Calbee (2229) Underweight Ezaki Glico (2206), Itoham Yonekyu Holdings (2296), Yakult Honsha (2267) Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Key points Overweight •Morinaga Milk(2264;Top pick):ABtoBspecialty player; capital-cost-conscious management supports corporate value creation.•Kikkoman (2801): We favor a crisis-resilient portfolio, see new plants as growth opportunities, and watch capital policy shifts.•Ajinomoto (2802): F2026 accelerating ABF and CDMO growth, with higher raw material costs absorbed across the MSG value chain.•Nissui(1332):Marine products and food businesses offset each other’s volatility; PY.(PesqueraYadran) acquisition is attractivelypriced with strong synergy potential.•Fuji Oil(2607):Short-term earnings are driven by Blommer; further upside if CBE adoption accelerates in the US.•Nichirei(2871):Negatives priced in; focus on consumption trends and logistics growth.•Toyo Suisan (2875): Competitive edge in North America remains strong; growth potential in Mexico/Latin America supported bycapacity expansion and a strong peso. Underweight •Ezaki Glico(2206):Shares appear overvalued; improving low ROE and advancing governance reforms are essential.•ItohamYonekyu(2296):In an investment phase; commemorative dividends will fade.•Yakult Honsha (2267): Yakult 1000 has peaked; new plants in Japan/US weigh on performance. Equal-weight •Kewpie(2809):Domestic resilience valued; F2027 may see c.¥10bn cost increases, US growth accelerates F2026 3Q.•Meiji Holdings(2269):Short-term earnings and restructuring support the share price; growth strategy remains unclear. Lack of clarityaround mid-to long-term growth strategy remains a challenge.•Yamazaki Baking (2212):F2026 guidance excludes Middle East risks, posing downside risk; focus on timing of price hikes.•NH Foods(2282):Meat business strength is priced in; further upside requires profitability gains in processed foods.•Nissin Foods HD (2897): Heavy investment weighs on earnings; focus on domestic instant noodle price-increase penetration.•Calbee(2229): The outlook for the company’s domestic factory restructuring remains uncertain. Valuation table Key Investment Themes •Inflation risk resilience: Focus onupstream players with strongsourcing and pricing power•Shift from B2C to high-tech B2B: Strong growth and pricingpass-through•Shifts in the US food market: GLP-1 adoption and protein/nutritiongaps create growth opportunities•End of reduced food tax and falling rice prices: Positive for Japan’sB2C food companies CPI vs. Engel coefficient Food makers: Overseasbusinesscomposition ratio(FY2024) and FX sensitivity (USD, EUR: Impact on OP for a ¥1 depreciation;Other currencies: Impact on OPfor a 1% depreciation against the JPY) Performance Summary of Covered Companies Kikkoman(2801):Overweight Segment information Our view Ajinomoto(2802):Overweight Our view Ajinomoto Toyo Suisan (2875):Overweight Segment information Our view NissinFoodsHD (2897):Equal-weight Segment information Our view Yakult (2267):Underweight Our view Yakult MorinagaMilkIndustry(2264): Overweight Segment information Our view Globalproteinmarket Points •FY29 Targets: ROE: >=10%, OPM:>=7%, Overseas sales ratio:>=15%In 2023, approximately ¥65 billion of cash inflow (around 20% of shareholders’equity) led to a decline in ROE.Pursuit of optimal capital structure. •Clarification of Growth AreasDomestic: Yogurt, frozen desserts, microbial products, milk powder •Pursuit of an Optimal Capital StructureTarget net D/E ratio: approximately 0.4–0.5x, current level: around 0.1x •Shareholder returnsMedium-term plan benchmark payout ratio 30%→40%;¥10bn buybacks in 3 years Nichirei (2871):Overweight Segment information Our view Nichirei (2871) Frozen Foods Business:Comparison with Ajinomoto Domestic frozen food market share in 2024 Nissui(1332): Overweight Our view Nissui(1332):New mid-term plan and global com