奈飞2026年第一季度：流媒体增长，利润率缓冲？

+1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com +1 917 344 8564martin.boruchowicz@bernsteinsg.com +19173448302andrew.chung@bernsteinsg.com NFLX Netflix 1Q26: Streaming Growth, Buffering Margins? nowfeelsmore like a questionthan anexpectation afterNetflixreiterateditslowmarginguidance.Fundamentals ("PxQ") remain intact, but the narrative is challenging: a materialstep-upin content spend in amore competitivelandscapepoints toa slowerEPSgrowth.With ample discounted opportunities across TMT,investors are likely to stay cautious untilmargin visibility improves.Four keytakeaways: Revenue guide intact.Netflixreiterated 12-14%*26 revenue growth.We lean toward14%,supported by price increases and continued momentum in advertising. Margins-still disappointing. Management firmly reiterated its full-year guidance. Manyinvestors had anticipated an upward revision in 2H, but the company's emphasis ontheneed forincreased content investment-along withadditional detail on the amort schedule-tempers expectations for margin upside.While we still believe content spend could ultimatelycome in below guidance, we acknowledge the need for a meaningful step-up. Hostingpremium events, such as a BTS comeback (link in Korean), is costly. Margins-thebiggerissue.Ifthe step-up (and/or other)costs proves structural ratherthana blip,this would warrant a more serious reassessment of the investment thesis.Sustainedcost pressure would imply slower margin expansion,EPS growth deceleration,and potentialfurther de-rating. We are not there yet, but closely monitoring. Evolving-finally?Weare encouraged by Netflix's investments in the mobile experienceand vertical formatcontent.While not sufficient on their own,these initiatives representconstructivestepstoward innovationalignedwith shifting consumption behavior.Ifexecutedwell,they could help amplifythe value of the existing library and improve returns on contentspend. InvestmentImplications We maintain our Outperform rating for Netflix with a revised PT of $110 (-5).EPS revision isdriven by higher content amort and technology & marketing spend. 1Apr2026-NFLX:DeconstructionofNetflix's contentspendand implications on'26EPS 27 Mar 2026-NFLX: Price hike secures double-digit revenue growth in'2619 Mar 2026-NFLX:Engagement -more nuanced than the headline12Mar 2026-NFLX: What is the range of EPS upside for 2026?26Feb 2026-NFLX/PSKY/WBD:NFLXwalks and everyone wins30Jan2026-NFLX,WBD,PSKY:WhatnowforNetflix?Relativerankingofpreferred outcomes21 Jan2026-Netflix 4Q25:Solid 2025 overshadowed by disappointing 2026margin guide16 Jan 2026-Netflix4Q25 Preview: It's about 2026 pricing11 Dec 2025 -NFLX, WBD, PSKY: Press 1 to ask a question - how do you get out of this situation? Industry 4Mar2026-State of theMedia Industry (4Q25):Margin pressure ondeck 13 Jan 2026-2026 US Media Outlook: Linear, Al,and everything in between 12Jan2026-NFLX,DIS,WBD,PSKY:KeyTakeawaysFrom4Q25StreamingWebinar NFLX reported its 1Q26 results afterthemarketclose. :Revenuesgrewby+16%Y/Y(onreportedand+14%onFxNbasis)to$12.25Bin1Q26,aheadofthecompany'sprevious guidanceand consensus estimates.The beat wasdriven by higher-than-planned subscription revenue. :APAC led revenue growth on a FX Neutral basis and was up by 19%YoY (20% w/ FX).It was followed by LATAM with 18%growthYoY on aFXNeutral basis(19%w/FX).UCAN grew by14%YoYand EMEAgrew12%YoYon aFXNeutral basis(17% w/ FX). .Thecompanyguidedto$12.57Bofrevenuefor2Q26,whichisequivalentto+13.5%YoYandslightlylowerthanconsensus. :Netflixmanagement mentioned that they have three areas of focus to achieve theirgoals:1)deliveringmoreentertainmentvaluetomembers,2)leveragingtechnologytoimproveservice,and3)improvingmonetization Netflix shared that their internal"qualityengagement"”metric hit an all-timehigh in1Q26.Theyalso highlightedthatbesidesfocusingthe majorityofcontentbudgetoncoreseriesandfilms,theycontinuedtoexpandtheoffering withvideopodcasts, a regional live event (the World Baseball Classic in Japan), and, in early April, a new standalone gaming app for kids. Netflixsharedthat itacquired InterPositive in1Q26.ThecompanyprovidescreatorswithGenAltools.Additionally,Netflix is redesigning its mobile experience, including the launch of vertical video atthe end of the month opportunities by entering into new types of partnerships, like with Mercado Libre in Mexico and Brazil, where they arebundling Netflix with their e-commerce loyalty program to deepen penetration in thosemarkets. rate in 2026, before decelerating to mid-to-high single digit growth in the second half of the year. theWBD-relatedterminationfee.Thecompanyincreased2026fullyearFCFguidanceto$12.5Bfrom$11Bforthissameeffect,andcontinuestoassumethattheratioofcashcontentspendtocontentamortizationremainsat1.1x. approvedbuybackprogram. % of Advertising vs Subsciption Revenue inmillionsexceptpershareandpercentagedata O-Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR-Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended Source: Bloomberg, Ber