自动驾驶卡车：人工智能……迟早：物理人工智能将如何改变一个技术落后的行业？

How will Physical Al transform a tech-laggard sector? look like bytheearly2030s when A/has been fully integrated&commercialized.Therearebroadlytwo schoolsof thoughtthrough our researchonAlglobally.The"Sooner"campjustnotyet. In this series,each analystis declaring their viewon thetiming andnatureofAldisruptionintheirsectorandwhatthatimpliesforwarrantedvaluationtoday.InTrucks,thetransformational impact is'later:..but soonerthanmostexpect and is priced intostocks.Thecaseforautonomoustrucks isclear.Driversarethelargestoperatingcostfortruck harry.martin@bernsteinsg.comAlice Buckley alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.comDavidVernon +1 9173448333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.comChad Dillard owners andarealso in shortsupply.Limitations ontheirhours alsomakea truck oneof theTcOmodel,webelieveautonomoustruckscanbetransformationalandthatthepromisedcost savings arereal:with~15%TCO reductions likely even after paying ~$0.3 permile fora virtual driverandotherincremental opexforan autonomous system. +19173448469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.comJustine Weiss +19173448433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com proclaimed:"The ChatGPTmomentforphysical Alis here-whenmachines begin tounderstand,reasonandact in therealworldTrucking is akey likelybeneficiary,and thissentiment is alsoreflected in autonomoustruck businesses benefiting froma massivenewfunding cycle.Forthe basketof promising AV trucking companies we analyse,of~$7.5bntotal raised intheir history~$2.6bn hasflowedsinceJanuary2025.Aladvancementsarealsoaidingtheshiftfromrules-basedtoE2Emodels;andnextwillbeVLAwhichincorporates LLM intelligence fortext&video interpretation that Chinese carOEMs arestarting to pioneer.These generalised models allowbetter scalability,reduce reliance on +19173448432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com The lay of the land. Diving into the competitive landscape, we note new funding is goingto a wider set of AV trucking players than historically. Significant focus from startups is nowgoing to signing OEM partners and their scalability,rather than simply the performanceoftheAVmodels in isolation.USregulatory approvals to dateremain in Texas&sunbelt,while Europe looks someyears behind (albeitthereare sometrialvehicles in Germany&Sweden).OEMscontinueto investcapital into autonomous truck platforms:allbarDaimlerare agnostic to which virtual driver integrates, while DTG is the only company developing amodel in-housethrough Torc Robotics acquired in 2019. TruckOEMsstill needtoexist...butthiscouldhugelyshakeuptheireconomics.Wethink the largest &most underappreciated change of autonomy is meaningful consolidationof the freight industry-the OEMs'customer base.OEMs earn higher margins &pricingfrom small customers (~85% of today's industry), and it is very likely large fleets will beearlyadopters &key winners from ourforecast TcOsavings.Early adopters are prioritisingexisting OEMdealer&maintenancerelationships, butthenewworldwouldlikely help Teslatoo. We do also note positivepotential impacts from anewrecurring revenue stream,highertruck prices,and (less likely)even a volume supercyclefor new equipment. autonomous, the significantthreats explain whythey are investing meaningful capital already despite the most meaningfulimpact being many years away.Truck valuations today are exactly in-line withlong-term historical paradigms i.e.pricing inzero disruption riskfrom autonomous,BEVs or something else.We seethenext cycle as more challenging than thelastparticularlyasmegatrends ofelectrificationandautonomous truckingdrivemorecompetition andrequire higher R&Dandcapital investments which is alreadyholding back cash generation.This informs our relatively cautious view on the EuropeanOEMs (Market-Perform Volvo, Traton andUnderperformDaimler Truck).In the US, we rate Paccar Outperform andCumminsMarket-Perform. Related ResearchAutonomousTrucking:Long-HaullnvestorsWanted! Transport Blast-When the Machines Rise,WhoWill Unite Themand Consolidatethe Trucking Market?Trucks in 2030: What historical cycles can (and can't) tell us about the next oneGlobal Trucks: Where the real money is at. Primer on Aftermarket Parts & Services - the industry's best profit poolGlobal Trucks: Aftermarket Parts & Services -assessing the long-term threats to the industry's best profit poolElectric Revolution: Divergence-The state of electrification in trucks. Rising investments,and moats under threatTrucks:AprimerontheTesla Semi-and whatitmeansforlegacytruckmakersTrucks: US upswing,priced in? Target prices up,stocks already up more. Paccar the stock to own, Daimler remainsUnderperformEU Trucks 2026 Outlook: From diverging cycle to testing new world order. Daimler Truck Underperform, Volvo & Traton (MP)EU Trucks:Hard shoulderahead.Initiatingat Underperform on Volvo&Daimler Truck,TratonMarket-Perform Introducingthistopic,wefirstwantto observe thathypedtechnologiesandthetrucking industryhavenot historicallygonetotally hand in hand.Newtechnologyadoption in truckstypicallyfollows an adoption cycle10-20years behindtheca