稀土出口管制的全球影响：基于模型的评估

Global implications of exportcontrols on rare earths:a model-based assessment Pablo Aguilar,Matthieu Darracq Pariès,ValentinJouvanceau, Baptiste Meunier, Tajda Spital Contents Abstract2Non-technical summary31Introduction52Risks from supply disruptions in REEs82.1The REE supply chain82.2Past episodes of export restrictions on critical minerals102.3Hypothetical scenario: a partial Chinese export ban on REEs112.4Escalation risks beyond REEs133Criticality of REEinputs in a partial equilibrium framework153.1Model description and calibration153.2Static output losses164Macroeconomic transmission in a closed-economy DSGE174.1Model description and calibration17Box 1Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of REE supplyrestrictions174.2Outputand inflation impacts from export controls215Propagation via global value chains in a multi-country multi-sector model225.1Model description and calibration22Box 2Inflation dynamics in a multi-country multi-sector NewKeynesian model with production networks225.2Global macroeconomic implications of export controls256Conclusion29References30 Appendix35 Abstract In April and in October 2025 China imposedexport controlson rare earths amidescalatingtradetensionswith the United States.Althoughthese measures weretooshort-livedto generate macroeconomiceffects, theysignalledChina’sabilitytodrawonits dominant positionin therare earthsupply chain.This paper provides astructured assessment of the potential macroeconomic consequences associatedwith rareearth supply disruptions.First,itdocuments thatexposure torareearthsupply disruptions isconcentrated inhigh-tech and security-sensitive sectorsincludingautomotive, electronics and defence-related industries. Second,drawing onearlierepisodes ofChinese export restrictionson critical minerals (notably in2010and 2023),ithighlightstwokeymitigatingforcesfrom the targeted countries’perspective:practical and strategicconstraints onChina’s ability toimplementstrictexportbans,and innovation-led substitutionby targeted countries. Third,thepaperquantifies the global macroeconomic implications of a hypothetical scenario ofstringentbutpartial Chineseexportrestrictionson rare earthslastingfor18 months.To do so, the analysis combines, for the various segments of the transmission chain,apartial equilibrium setup,aclosed-economy DSGEmodel, andthemulti-countrymulti-sector dynamic modelof Aguilar et al. (2026).The main results, acrossspecifications,suggestestimatedoutput losses for the United Statesrangingbetween 0.3% and0.6%, withthe largestimpactsconcentrated inautomotive andelectronicsmanufacturing.Theresultsat the same timehighlight the sensitivity ofmodel-based estimates to assumptions on the substitutability of rare earths and theseverity of restrictions. Keywords:export restrictions, critical minerals, supply chain, export ban, trademodelling JEL codes:F13, F17, C63, C68, Q37 Non-technical summary Rare earth elements (REEs) are essentialinputs to many industries, andChina’s dominance overtheirsupply chain hasraised concerns aboutstrategic dependencies, including for the euro area.Although the global marketfor REEs is small, these materials are indispensable for producing key componentssuch asthepermanent magnets used in electric vehicles, renewable energytechnologies, medical equipment and defence systems. China dominates criticalstages of the REE supply chain,particularlyrefining andpermanentmagnetproduction, leaving many countries highly dependent onsupplyfrom the country.The short-lived export controls introduced in 2025 demonstratedhow China’sdominance can be leveraged as part of a broader geoeconomic strategy.Beyondraising prices, export restrictions canalsoserve as visible and immediateinstruments of leverage in trade negotiations, signalling resolve and shapingbargaining positions. In April and October 2025 such controls coincided withrenewed trade tensions and were widely interpreted as part of a negotiation dynamicbetween China and theUnited States. This paper aims to fill an analytical gap by using a comprehensive set ofmodels to assess the global implications of export restrictions onREEs. Despite theircriticality, the literature analysing the implications of export controlsremains scarce and the few existing studiesgenerallyfocus on narrow analyticalapproaches(e.g.partialequilibriumandstatic models)whichdo not capture the fullmacroeconomic consequences, including effects on inflation. Toaddressthis gap,this papercombinesthree complementary economic models. First, a partialequilibrium framework is used to estimate the impact on output, based ona stylisedproduction function withlimited substitutabilityfor REE inputs.Second, a closed-economy DSGE model isemployed to analyse broader effects on inflation andeconomic activityin the targeted economy.Finally, the state-of-the-art global multi-country multi-sector modelof Aguilar et al. (2026)examines how export restrictionspropagateinternationallythroughglobalsupply chains. To the best of ourkno