全球奢侈品：投资策略 - 第一部分：抄底探索

Global Luxury Goods: Investment Strategies - Part 1: A bottomfishing expedition Investors have started to kick the tires on the luxury sector, again. The high-quality/high-momentum names in the sector are well-debated. But for those willing to go bottom fishing,we offer an overview of the other momentum, value and self-help names to consider. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Several factors have been puzzling investors on what to do with luxury goodsstocks in the past 12 months.(1) Lacklustre Chinese demand growth out of the Covid-19pandemic; (2) A more polarised demand environment: with high-end consumers leadingand middle class aspirational consumers trailing; (3) Major gyrations in tourist and travelflows - with wild swings in regions like Japan, Europe, the Middle East; (4) Adverse currencytrends, with European currencies (CHF, EUR, GBP) getting stronger relative to globalcurrencies; (5) Rising geopolitical tensions: Liberation Day, Venezuela, Iran. Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com We offer a way to side-step these questions by focusing on relative positioningwithin the luxury goods space.We frame our coverage in 3 major groups. We use ourROIC performance scores (see Global Luxury Goods: ROIC normalization continues withself-help stories outperforming) and valuations relative to history to identify them: Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com •Quality- In this space we find Hermès and Richemont •Momentum… and lack thereof- Zegna, Brunello Cucinelli, EssilorLuxottica … andLVMH, Moncler, Prada •Value & Self-help- Burberry, Ferragamo, Swatch Group, Kering and Birkenstock Within “momentum”, it is difficult to find a perfect candidate today - we think - if wewant “cheap” and “return to growth” conviction: 1.LVMH, OP, PT€600.00,has ended up at the intersection of quality, self-help, and a lackof momentum. 1Q26A may have been a party postponed, but the Dior revival seems tobe in progress, with momentum expected to build through the rest of FY26 (see LVMH:Highlights from the 1Q26 conference call). Not perfect, but good enough, perhaps. 2.Moncler, MP, PT€57.50,punches above its weight on ROIC quality. But accelerationin the Americas, through Grenoble, and a Stone Island take-off will need to be balancedagainst Moncler’s traditional trading seasonality and waning momentum with the corecollection (see Moncler: Looking at the other 90%). 3.Prada, OP, PT50.00$HK,is very cheap but is facing fast normalisation at Miu Miu andrelatively soft growth in its core brand. Prada is at risk of falling into “deep value”. Within “value / self-help”, it is often difficult to identify the right balance betweenseemingly attractive “deep-value” multiples and execution risk: 1.Burberry, OP, PT1,500.00GBp,is one of the strongest continuing growth prospects -in our view - even if its valuation has reflated and is now -15% below the 10Y average. 2.Ferragamo, OP, PT€7.50,is starting from a very low base and is - for the first time in along time - on a promising course of action, driven by a pool of like-minded executives(see Salvatore Ferragamo: Less is more. Upgrade to Outperform). 3.Swatch Group OP, PT180.00CHF, has recently reflated. The jury is out on theprospect of operating re-leverage and continuing improvement in global watchesdemand, but market valuations anticipate a move from “deep value” to “self-help”. 4.Kering, MP, PT€220.00,is still (very) cheap relative to its 10-year EV/Sales history,but seems still far from reigniting growth in its core brands at a time when investors aremoving to “show me” mode (see Kering: Highlights from the 1Q26 conference call). 5.Birkenstock, MP, PT$50.00,is very attractive on valuation, but more perplexing ongrowth, given its continuing wholesale beats on lackluster direct retail and subduedbrand building. More conviction on brand momentum is needed (see Birkenstock:Getting cold feet). In the spirit of this ‘bottom fishing’ expedition, we use this report to update our viewon two relatively unloved stocks:Prada Group and Swatch Group have both started tostraddle the boundaries between momentum, ”deep value”, and self-help. PRADA GROUP Miu Miu’s meteoric momentum has cooled, leaving it at risk of becoming “deepvalue”.The key to success here is for the core brand Prada to show convincing growth thatcould make its claim of “the brand being bigger than the business” more credible. This seems like a tall order, at a time when many of its peers benefit from risingbuzz on the back new creative leaderships being appointed.Miu Miu has swung frombeing a big fig leaf to hide muted growth at Prada, to being an additional concern given itssharp normalisation. The recent acquisition of Versace - widely disliked by the market, givenPrada’s M&A track record - is adding to concerns Prada Group’s CEO h