2025年澳大利亚排放预测报告

November 2025 Australia’s emissions projections 2025 © Commonwealth of Australia2025 Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights) in this publication is owned by theCommonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth). Creative Commons licence All material in this publication is licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licenceexcept contentsupplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. Inquiries about the licence and any use of this document shouldbe submitted via our online contactform. Cataloguing data This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: DCCEEW 2025,Australia’s emissions projections2025, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Canberra,November. CC BY 4.0. This publication is available atAustralia’s emissions projections 2025-DCCEEW. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water GPO Box 3090 Canberra ACT 2601 Telephone 1800 920 528 Web dcceew.gov.au Disclaimer The Australian Government acting through the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water hasexercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, theDepartment of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability,including liability for negligence and for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result ofaccessing, using or relying on any ofthe information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law. Acknowledgements Image credit @Copyright Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (taken byYura Bae) Acknowledgement of Country We acknowledge the Traditional Owners of Country throughout Australia and recognise their continuing connection toland, waters and culture. We pay our respects to their Elders past and present. Feedback The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water welcomes feedback regarding Australia’semissions projections atEmissions.Projections@dcceew.gov.au. Executivesummary Australia’s emissions projections 2025provides the latest estimates of Australia’s greenhouse gasemissions to 2040. Theyshow how Australia is tracking against its emissions reduction commitmentsby examining the potential impact of currently implemented policies and measures to reducegreenhouse gas emissions. Australia’s emissionsreduction targets Australia recently set its 2035 target under the ParisAgreement.The Australian Governmentaccepted the Climate Change Authority’s advice under theClimateChangeAct 2022to setAustralia’s2035 targetasa commitment to reduce emissions to62–70%below2005 levels by 2035,implementedas a multi-yearemissions budget.A budget approach aligns with the science of climatechange, as the extent of warming and other impacts depend on cumulativeemissions over time, noton emissions in a single year.This targetwas submittedto the United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) as Australia’s secondnationally determined contribution (NDC). In addition tothe2035 target,Australiahas a2030and 2050targetlegislated in theClimate ChangeAct 2022. The 2030 target isboth a single year commitment to reduce emissions to 43% below 2005levels, and a multi-year emissions budget from 2021 to 2030.Boththe 2030 and 2035targetsrepresent ambitiousand achievablewaypoints towards Australia’s net zero emissions by 2050commitment. The 2025 emissions projections The 2025 emissions projections show that with current policies Australia meetsits2030 target on abudget basis and iswithin reach of the point-in-time target. The2025emissions projections areprepared taking account ofcurrently implemented policies, like the expanded Capacity InvestmentScheme(CIS)to help deliver on the government’s 82% renewable electricity target,theSafeguardMechanism, theAustralian Carbon Credit Unit(ACCU)Scheme andthe New Vehicle EfficiencyStandard(NVES), as well assomenew announcements over the past year includingthecommencement of theCheaperHomeBatteries program,andchangesto energy policyinQueensland.1 The emissions projections indicate that Australia’s emissions will be354Mt CO2-e or42% below 2005levels by 2030. In terms of the emissions budget, emissions are projected to be 3% below thebudget.That is Australia is expected to overachieve on its 2030 target on a budget basis. In terms of tracking against the 2035 target, the emissionsprojections indicateAustralia’s cumulativeemissions over 2031 to 2035 will be20–34%above the emissions budget, that is Australia needs toreduceits emissionsby a further283–429Mt CO2-eover 2031–35 in order to meet the 2035 target.The Climate Change Authority’s advice to Government is that this target is achievable and that“[t]hefoundational climate change policies for achieving this target