2025 贸易的未来：关键矿产报告

THE CRITICAL MINERALSRACE: TRADE, SUPPLY ANDTRANSITION TABLE OFCONTENTS IntroductionExecutive SummaryChapter 1: A demand surge reshapingglobal marketsChapter 2: Supply chains under strainChapter 3: Governments redrawingthe critical minerals mapChapter 4: The Middle East’s criticalminerals playKey recommendations04081422344452 INTRODUCTION Once nice commodities,these minerals – termed‘critical’ because of theirindispensability to aswathe of industries –are now at the heart of anew geopolitical contest.Nations and industriesare scrambling to securesupplies, mitigate supplychain vulnerabilities, andhedge against rising costs. The global economy is undergoing a seismic shift. The twinforces of digitalisation and the energy transition are fuellingan insatiable demand for critical minerals – resources essentialfor everything from electric vehicles and renewable energy toadvanced computing and defence technologies. Once nice commodities, these minerals – termed ‘critical’because of their indispensability to a swathe of industries – arenow at the heart of a new geopolitical contest. Nations andindustries are scrambling to secure supplies, mitigate supplychain vulnerabilities, and hedge against rising costs. Unlike traditional hydrocarbon-based systems, clean energytechnologies are vastly more mineral-intensive. An electric vehiclerequires five times the mineral content of a conventional car. Windand solar farms demand extensive use of rare earth elements,nickel, silver, and silicon. If the world is to meet net-zero targets by2050, demand for key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, andgraphite could surge by up to 75 times their 2020 levels. But the digital revolution and the rapid expansion ofAI infrastructure are amplifying this pressure, drivingunprecedented demand for high-purity silicon, rare earthelements, and advanced semiconductors. The challenge is notjust scaling up supply – it’s ensuring that supply is secure, cost-effective, and resilient. Yet, the critical minerals supply chain is fraught with risks. Mining is highly concentrated in specific regions, notably China,Australia, Russia, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa. Chinaoverwhelmingly dominates global refining and processingcapacity, while Russia’s leading position in nickel, platinum,and other key minerals is a supply risk in light of Westernsanctions. Meanwhile, long lead times stretch over a decade,making short-term supply adjustments nearly impossible.These dynamics contribute to an emerging regionalisation ofthe minerals trade, characterised by shifting alliances and newtrade blocs. Competition is inevitable, but opportunities for strategicpartnerships are also emerging. The Gulf states like the UAEand Saudi Arabia, with their financial firepower and access tolow-cost energy, are positioning themselves as pivotal players.Whether through investments in global mining projects,expanding minerals processing capabilities, or leveraging tradeties with China, Russia, and Europe, the region is set to play anincreasingly influential role in the minerals supply chain. These structural vulnerabilities are pushing governments andbusinesses to rethink their strategies – diversifying supplychains, ramping up recycling and material efficiency, andinvesting in alternative technologies such as sodium-ionbatteries and next-generation solar and wind components. This report examines the evolving landscape of critical minerals –mapping demand trends, identifying key risks, and exploring thegeopolitical dynamics that will define this new industrial era. As a result, geopolitics will play a decisive role in shaping thefuture of critical minerals. EXECUTIVESUMMARY The scale is staggering– by 2050, demand forlithium, cobalt, and nickelcould soar by up to75 times 2020 levels. This publication serves as the first in-depth DMCC reporton the global critical minerals trade. Building on uniqueinsights and expert analysis, this Future of Trade specialedition delves into the central forces shaping the world ofcritical minerals, highlighting their pivotal role in the globaleconomy, energy transition, and technological innovation.As industries race to scale renewable energy, AI and next-generation computing, demand for lithium, rare earthelements, and other critical minerals has surged – intensifyinggeopolitical competition, reshaping supply chains, anddriving investment into new extraction and processing hubs.From securing resilient supply networks to navigating shiftingtrade policies, this report explores the strategies, challenges,and opportunities that will define the future of the criticalminerals landscape. and nickel could soar by up to 75 times 2020 levels. Nationsand corporations must navigate supply constraints, refiningbottlenecks, and intensifying competition to secure access tothese indispensable materials. We identify four key themes defining the critical mineralslandscape: A demand surge reshaping global markets Supply chains under str