ASML 2026年第一季度：看淡疲软的第二季度；2027年每股收益45欧元以上已成基本预期

+8522918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.comCarmine Milano Rating +44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com OutperformPrice Target +8522123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com ASML.NA ASML Q1 2026: Look through the soft Q2; E45+ EPS in 2027 is thebase now opportunity.In ourview,the weak Q2 should belooked through given strongerprospects for2H26and2027,andthatASML'smanagementcommentshasmade45+EPSin2027asthe base case, driven by: Wenowforecast2027EUVrevenuetogrowa whopping46%YoYin2027,with: 1.LNAEUVcapacityraised to"atleast80units"basedon customerdiscussions,33%growth YoY (Exhibit 1); this should be the base case for shipment. Future unit growth isless of a question as thereis a clearpath toboost productivitybyanother50%by 2031. 2.LNAEUVASPup11%:nextyear'sproductmixgoesto3800Eat 230WpHplusminorityofthenew3800F(260WpH),while2026mixis3800E(~80%)and~20%NXE:3800D(older); the blended throughput and hence ASP goes up 11% (Exhibit 2). Beyondthat, we see LNA EUV ASP growing by 40% from 2026-2030, driven by throughputimprovements (Exhibit 3) 2027DUVgrows17%in2027,assuming: 1.In2026,DUVisbasically flat from2025,but China is guided tobe 20%of total revenue,implying non-China DUV revenue is up~70% YoY.Management raised ArFi capacity andit will not bea bottleneck.This confirms ourviewthat DUV and EUV grows hand-in-handeven forleading edgelogic and DRAM (ASML:Don't forget DUV.Outperform).Wethinkthis year's strong DUV growth is driven mostly by DRAM, which requires 2 ArFitools topair with 1 EUV tool. 2. In 2027,assuming China stays flat at this very low level which is very conservative (Exhibit4),and non-China DUV grows moderately at~30% because of continued pairing withEUVtools (but we conservativelytakea discountfromEUVgrowth),wegetDUVtogrow17%. If China demand snaps back with no import control, that would present more EUR 47EPS (from 42.6).For 2028, we similarly raise revenue to EUR 55.7Bn, EPS 56.4(Exhibit 12).PT unchanged at 1700, now implying a lower multiple of only 35x. (ASML.NA/ASMLHoldingNV;EUVModel;DUVModel). We increased our EPSfor27andlowered targetPEto35x (was 40x);TP remains unchanged at1,700.ReiterateOP;ASMLourtoppick. WeupdatedourASML,EUVandDUVmodelsbyincorporatingmanagement'scommentsinQ42o25earnings.Models can bedownloaded here(ASML.NA/ASMLHoldingNV;EUV Model;DUV Model).EXHIBIT1:WeexpectEUVshipmenttoreach60inEXHIBIT 2: Historically there as been a very strong 2027and80 in 2028,in line with capacityexpansionguidance. positivecorrelationbetweenASMLEUVASPandtheblended throughput measured in WpH. we still see17%upside in DUV revenue driven by RoW growing 30%, supported by continued pairing with EUVtools. Q1RESULTSSUMMARYQ12026revenuecameinslightlyaboveconsensusandguidanceatEUR8.8Bn (vsConsandBernat8.7Bn),driven by stronger-than-expected Installed Basebusiness.Margins werealso solid,withGMatthe high end of guidanceat53%,aboveStreetexpectationsof52%,andOpMat36.0%versusConsat34.6%,alsodrivenbyupgradebusiness.EPSwasparticularlystrongat EUR7.15,around 8%above street.ASML,forthefirsttime,didnotreportbookings,aspreviously announced, but indicated that order intake continues to be very strong as a result. :Q1topline reachedEUR 8.8Bn,up 13% YoYand 10% sequentially,coming slightly above consensus and guidance of EUR8.7Bn. This was driven by stronger-than-expected Installed Base business, which reached EUR 2.5Bn (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6) .EUV represented a record 66% of system sales,equivalent to EUR 4.2Bn, with 16 EUV units shipped, including2HNAsystems, reflecting strong demand from advanced logic and DRAM customers (Exhibit 7). Lookingat thegeographicbreakdown of revenue,Q1system salesatEUR6.3Bn weredrivenbyverystrongmomentumin South Korea, which accounted for 45% of total system sales, the highest share ever recorded.As a result, Memory wasalso very strong,accountingfor51%of revenue.Incontrast,China sales declined to19%,thelowest level since Q12023(Exhibit 8). . ASML, for the first time, did not report bookings, as previously announced, but indicated that order intake continues to beverystrongasaresult. Q1Marginswerealsosolid,withGMatthehighendofguidanceat53%,above streetexpectationsof52%,andOpMat36.0%versus Cons at 34.6%.EPS was particularly strongat EUR7.15,around8% aboveStreet (Exhibit9) TheGMbeatwas mostlydrivenbythehighermargin installedbasemanagement,mostlyfromthequalificationandupgrade of 3800EPEP-E(performance enhancementpackage).ThePEP-Ebrings the 3800E throughput from 220WpHto 230WpH. .Goingforward,othercustomers may qualityPEP-Easwell,which wouldcomemostlyas higherASPfor installed basemanagement. systems can already beupgradedtoaround230wafers perhour(WPH),whilethenext-generation NXE:3800Fhas had itsthroughput specification lifted from250 WPH to 260WPH, with first shipments planned in 2027andvolume ramp in 2028.Longer term,ASMLtargets at least 330 WPHonlow-NA EUV systems bythestartof the nextdecade,enabled primarilybycontinuedsource-powerimprovements.Managementemphasizedthat,historica