优必选与达闼：人形机器人的两条不同路径

EquitiesIndustrials UniTree and UBTech: Two different paths for humanoid robots Asia ◆Mass productionhas started;global humanoid shipmentsreached 18k units in 2025, up from 2.3k units in 2024 Helen Fang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6942 ◆We compareUniTree and UBTech in terms of product offering,ASP, customer mix,and receivable days Kenneth Chin*, CFAAssociate, Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedkenneth.t.k.chin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4521 ◆UpgradeUBTechto Buy,from Hold;raise TP to HKD126.00(9.7x 2027e P/S),from HKD124.00 Bart Liu*AssociateGuangzhou See ourlatestreport in ourseries of humanoid robot reports;Embodied Intelligence:Humanoid robots (9): Dexterous hands are the next focus,17March. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Mass production accelerating:UBTech shipped 1,076 units of full-size humanoid robotsin 2025, up fromfiveunits in 2024.UniTree/Agibot/Galbot/Lejushipped5.5k/5.2k/1.2k/0.5kunitsof humanoidsin 2025(ex.5). We believe mass production isaccelerating, and government data collection sites(seehere)are main driversas itaccounted forc50% of UBTech’s 2025 shipments. Weincreaseour2026shipmentvolumeestimatefor UBTech to 4k units (up from 2.6k units, ex. 4).For the overallhumanoid market, ourbase-caseshipmentforecast for 2026is31kunits(ex.31). UniTreevs.UBTech–industrial versus consumer-targeted humanoids ◆End-users differ:UBTech’s focus is on industrial full-sized embodied humanoid robots,mainly applied in factoriesand data collection sites,whereas UniTree focuses on mid-sized consumer grade humanoidsfor exhibitions(ex.2). UBTech’s humanoid ASP ofRMB760kin 2025is352%higher than UniTree’s RMB168kas of 9M25(ex. 3, 4).UniTree’s lower ASPandsmallerR&D expense(8%of salesas of 9M25versus UBTech’s25%in 2025)allowfastercommercialisation(UniTree shipped 5.5k unitsvsUBTech’s1.1kunits in 2025) andNP breakeven in 2025, while UBTech is loss-making. However, webelieve UBTech’s full-sized embodied solutionismore useful in industrial settings. ◆Cash quality varies:UBTech’s 2025 average receivables days was 268, higher thanUniTree’s19days. We believe the divergence was due tocustomermix–UBTech’s mainclients are governmentand auto customers, while UniTree’s are mostlyresearch institutes,universities,and distributors, many of which pre-pay to gain product access.Weexpectcontinued net cash outflow for UBTechin2025-27, and believe equity placement is a keyrisk (UBTechhasperformedsix placements since listing,ex.6). Upgrade UBTech to Buy,from Hold;raise TP to HKD126.00,from HKD124.00:We valueUBTech using a target P/Smultipleof9.7x against 2027e sales (see page9). Our TP increasesto HKD126.00,whichimplies16% upside. We upgrade to Buy as we see mass productionbeginning faster-than-expected. Catalysts include expected new product announcementsin 2Q,large neworder wins,andUniTree’s A-share IPO driving sector re-rating. HSBC Global Investment Summit This is our latest report on the Automation theme. If you want to subscribe to any ofour nine big themes,click here. 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report mustbe read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:UBTech Relevant reports ◆Embodied Intelligence-Humanoid robots (9): Dexterous hands are the next focus, 17 Mar 2026◆Humanoid Robots (8): Demand driven by government-supported data collection sites, 16 Sep, 2025◆Humanoid Robots (7)-Beneficiaries, Catalysts and Reality Check, 8 Apr 2025◆Humanoid Robots (6)-Who supplies to Tesla, Unitree and Figure AI?, 28 Feb 2025◆Humanoid Robots (5)-Is mass production coming in 2025?, 25 Jan 2025◆Humanoid Robots (4)-New arena opens door to new players, 23 Feb 2024◆Humanoid Robots (3)-Reviewing progress on Tesla’s humanoid robot, 10 July2023◆Humanoid Robots (2): Opportunities, obstacles + the long-awaited Optimus, 8 Sep 2022◆Humanoid Robots: Too early…but opportunities along the value chain, 13 July 2022 Peers comparison (UBTech, UniTree,andDobot) UBTech (9880 HK) ◆Faster-than-expected start of mass production;2026e humanoidrevenue up 215% (4k units, versus 1k in 2025)◆2026 GPM up 5.9ppt on more humanoids mix; NP breakeven in2027e;we see two advantages of UBTech over UniTree◆Upgrade to Buy;raise TP to HKD126.00(9.7x 2027ePS);shareprice catalystsinclude new productsin 2Qand new order wins UBTech comparison with UniTree:We believe UBTech’s advantage over UniTree is its focusin industrial full-sized embodied humanoid robots, whichcommand a higher technical barrier,and would be more useful in factory environments. UBTech’s hu