年内股价回调下的多空因素再分析

Revisiting bull & bear case amidYTDstockpullback Reiterate Rating:NEUTRAL| PO:175.00 USD| Price:136.18 USD Breakingdown the key Bull & Bear arguments on Reddit Positives: Strong growth drivers & advertiser tractionPositives are: 1) Meaningful revenue runway given monetization gap vs. peers, opportunity to grow ad loads and ad pricing, 2) Revenue upside potential from DPAs,search ads (monetizing 1.5bn+ searches a month) and new automated ad tools (RedditMax), 3) Reddit provides a key structural input for AI models, suggesting potential forimproving AI licensing deals in 2027, 4) Potential to improve user growth withsimplifying onboarding, optimizing home feed and new search capabilities, and 5) Strongfinancial model, with structurally low variable costs & potential margin upside. Risks:Slowing logged-in user growth & AI competitionRisks are: 1)Limited growth for high-value logged-in user base could constrain L.T. platform monetization, 2) High dependency on Google & growing share of AI searchresults may reduce referral traffic, 3) Growth in Gen-AI platform use (ChatGPT, Gemini,Claude, etc.) that could be competitive for user queries, 4) Widening AI-driven ROAS gapvs. large platforms could impact share of ad budgets, and 5) Higher macro exposuregiven ad spend volatility, expected growth rates & premium valuation. Macro risks elevated;Reiterate Neutral At ~$136, Reddit is valued at ~6.2x 2027E Revenue (vs peer median at 3.5x & avg. of10.6x since IPO). On 2027E EBITDA basis, stock is valued at 14x (vs peer median at 9x)and on 2027 GAAP P/E basis at 24x (vs peer median at 22x). Given discretionary natureof Online advertising spend, higher expected Reddit growth rates vs the sector, and apremium valuation to peers, we see Reddit as one of the most macro sensitive stocks inour coverage group. We think the stock would be an outsized beneficiary of any MEconflict resolution, but given current uncertainty, we reiterate our Neutral rating. Changing valuation methodology & lowering PO to $175We areshifting our valuation methodology to an EBITDA-based framework to better reflect a more mature margin profile vs at IPO. Given multiple compression in thebroader market, we lower our PO to $175 based on 2027E EBITDA of $1.8bn and 18xmultiple. Previously, our PO was based on 2027E revenue of $4.1bn and 9.5x multiple. iQprofileSMReddit Company Sector Advertising & Marketing Services Company Description Reddit is a social networking platform, made up ofhundreds of subcommunities, called Subreddits. Theplatform has more than120mn DAUs globally andgenerated close to $20 ARPU in 2025. Reddit generatesmajority of its revenue from digital ads, other revenuestream includes data licensing. The company was foundedin 2005 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA. Investment Rationale Reddit is a social media platform with a large and rapidlygrowing user base. The company has the opportunity torapidly grow Intl users with language translation, improveuser monetization & sign new data licensing deals thatcapitalize on billions of posts & comments on the platform.With high gross margins, revenue growth should driveoperating margin leverage. However, we expect historicallyvolatile user & revenue trends to continue and note apremium valuation to sector averages. Stock Data Introduction – The AI debate Reddit remains one of the most debated stocks in our coverage, as the market weighsthe company’s strong revenue growth, product pipeline and management execution vsslowing logged-in user growth, Google dependence in a shifting AI landscape, andpremium valuation. AI is the top theme in the Internet sector and positioning for AI isalso fueling the Reddit debate as follows: On the positive side, Reddit is well positioned in the AI ecosystem given an extensiveand growing collection of high quality, real world human conversation. This content hashigh value, both for engagement and users seek authentic content, and for AI models asReddit’s discussions can be a key input in training and generating AI generated answers.As usage increasingly shifts to AI-native discovery, Reddit’s unique dataset is becominga core reference layer within AI search ecosystems. This unique asset should enableReddit to secure more attractive data licensing and user traffic agreements withcompanies such as Alphabet and OpenAI, which have seen significant expansion inmarket cap since 2024 when deals were originally signed. However, growing AI usage has also introduced risks for Reddit’s business model. First,a substantial portion of Reddit’s traffic comes from Google Search (40-50% of est.users), and growing share of AI driven query results is reducing overall outgoing traffic,and could potentially impact Reddit’s future usage. Second, emerging Gen-AI platformssuch as ChatGPT and Gemini are gaining traction by providing higher quality answers touser queries, which could impact activity that historically flowed to Reddit. Finally,larger platforms continue