中远海运能源运输（600026.SS，600026 CG）

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation I Asia Qianlei Fan, CFAEquity AnalystQianlei.Fan@morganstanley.com Pacific 600026CG)Hong Kong/China Transportation & InfrastructureIChina This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much Stock RatingOverweight Industry ViewIn-LinePrice targetRmb31.60Shr price, close (Apr 10, 2026)Rmb24.1152-Week RangeRmb27.17-9.95Sh out, dil, curr (mn)4,169Mkt cap, curr (mn)Rmb122,602.8EV, curr (mn)Rmb145,123.7Avg daily trading value (mn)Rmb775 more compelling. We see attractive risk-reward after the recent share pricecorrection. Tanker fundamentals should find support if oil shipments increase fromthe Middle East or from the US GulfWe estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% (orvery likely')probability for the scenario. assessment of the likelihood of the scenario. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications witha subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Price/book, probability-weighted 25% bull, 60% base, 15% bear. The more positive skew toward our bull cases reflects VLCC's tight supply, more sanctions on the "dark fleet,' andcontinuous OPEC+ production hikes equivalent to historical mean since 2009) on Iranian oil exports.Longer shipment distancesMore scrapping of aged vessels Lower-than-expected crude oil outputCompression of A-H premium The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore)Pte. (Registration number199206298Z)and/orMorgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/orMorgan StanleyTaiwanLimited and/orMorgan Stanley&Colnternationalplc,SeoulBranch,and/or Morgan StanleyAustraliaLimited(A.BN.67003734576,holderofAustralianfinancialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 OO9 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices License No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN)U22990MHi998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board oflndia ('SEBI) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBIRegistration No.INH000001105); Stock BrokerRegistration No.IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021)having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 &40,Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018,India; Telephone no.+91-22-61181000; ComplianceOfficer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Emai: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, TeL No.: +91-22-61181000 or Emailmsic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts the responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan StanleyResearch, and their affiliates (collectively, Morgan Stanley). Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited (MSICPL) may use Al tools in providing research services. ALL recommendationscontained herein are made by the duly qualified research analysts.Forimportant disclosures, stock price charts and equityrating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report,please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website Management), New York, NY, 10036 USAForvaluationmethodologyand risks associated withanyrecommendation,rating orprice targetreferenced inthis research report,pleasecontactthe Client Support Teamas fllows:Us/Canada +1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81(0)3-6836-9000.Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management),New York, NY10036USAAnalystCertification Thefollowing analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received