预测市场：2030年将达1万亿美元市场

The Long View: Prediction Markets - $1Tn market by 2030 Prediction markets are evolving into broader information markets across sports, businessand the economy, politics, and culture. We expect prediction market volumes to scale to ~$240Bn in 2026 and compound at an ~80% CAGR between 2025–2030, reaching ~$1Tnby 2030E, driven by federal regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, anda structural liquidity edge over traditional gaming markets. At the same time, increasingregulatory clarity at the federal level (vs. state-regulated traditional frameworks) isexpanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integrationwith crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation and participationfrom institutions. Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com Mahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com Sanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com ~$1Tn event-contract volumes by 2030E:Prediction market volumes touched $51Bnin 2025, tripling YoY as liquidity rotated from the 2024 U.S. election cycle toward sports(~62% of volumes), crypto (~12%), and macro/political contracts (~26%). In 2026-YTD,Polymarket and Kalshi (both private) have already collectively executed ~$60Bn in volumes.We expect volumes to scale to ~$240Bn in 2026 and compound at an ~80% CAGRbetween 2025–2030, reaching ~$1Tn by 2030E. Harsh Misra+91 226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com $10Bn+ prediction market revenue pool by 2030E:Polymarket has recently movedaway from its zero-fee model and is now operating at an ARR of ~$420Mn. We expectthe prediction markets revenue pool to expand from ~$400Mn in 2025 to ~$2.5Bn in2026, driven by increasing volumes and higher monetization. At the current ~1.1% blendedtake rate, industry revenues are expected to scale to ~$10.8Bn by 2030E. Even under anaggressive take-rate compression (50% lower) in the event of institutional adoption, therevenue pool would still reach ~$5Bn, representing ~10x growth from 2025 levels. Sports is the entry point, not the endgame:Sports contracts currently dominatevolumes at a ~62% share, benefiting from the structural limitations of online sports betting(OSB) platforms and fragmented state-level regulation. As CFTC-regulated instruments,prediction market sports contracts are accessible nationally at a structurally lower effectivetake rate (2–4% vs. 7–10% for traditional OSBs). However, we expect sports’ share oftotal volumes to moderate to ~31% by 2030E, as non-sports contracts - particularly crypto(~25% by 2030E) and macro, political, and economic contracts (~44% by 2030E) - emergeas the larger long-term opportunity.We expect institutional market to develop aroundeconomics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct anddiscrete exposure to events. We also expect hedging demand from corporates,insurance firms exposed to specific event risks. Coverage Universe and Distribution Moat:Both Robinhood and Coinbase have launchedprediction markets, emerging as key distribution layers for what we expect to become a>$10Bn revenue pool by 2030. Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub reached ~$350MnARR within 12 months of launch (Mar’25), and it is moving up the value chain via its JV withSusquehanna and the acquisition of MIAXdx, launching its proprietary exchange, Rothera(mid-2026 launch), to capture exchange-level economics. Coinbase also entered thespace in Dec’25 through Kalshi, offering 1,000+ contracts across all 50 states. We expectdistribution to be the defining moat: HOOD (13Mn MAUs) and COIN (9Mn MAUs) are wellpositioned, although HOOD is ahead in the game currently. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate COIN and HOOD Outperform. DETAILS PREDICTION MARKET TAM Prediction market volumes reached $51Bn in 2025 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Sports contracts accounted for ~62% oftotal volumes, with the remaining activity spread across economics, politics, crypto, and culture markets. We expect predictionmarket volumes to scale to ~$240Bn in 2026, with sports maintaining a leading share, supported by major global events suchas the 2026 FIFA World Cup. 2026-YTD volumes stand at ~$60Bn, with sports retaining a ~62% share, while crypto accounts for ~16% and politics for~14%. We expect prediction market volumes to grow at an 80% CAGR over 2025–30E, reaching ~$1Tn by 2030. By 2030, we expectthe share of sports in total prediction market volumes to decline to ~31% (vs. 62% in 2025), while the share of non-sportcontracts rises to ~69%, driven by growing activity across crypto, politics, economics and other contracts. Sports -The online sports betting (OSB) market generated a gross handle of ~$160Bn in 2025 in U.S., growing ~12% YoY. OSBhandle represents gross dollars wagered as a one-directional stake. Prediction market sports-contracts are a direct substitutefor online sports betting. Structural advantages of event contracts - 1. Federal