美国制药与生物技术：2026年并购热度高涨……年底前的首选推荐

US Pharma and Biotech: M&A in 2026 is running hot… Our toppicks through year end With Q4 earnings and several 2025 investor conferences now in the rear view, we share ourlatest thinking on M&A outlook in a collaborative note between Bernstein’s US Pharma andBiotech analysts. William Pickering, MD+1 917 344 8340william.pickering@bernsteinsg.com Courtney Breen+1 917 344 8407courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com Historical context. Deal-making in 2025 was up ~200% vs. ‘24, and 2026 YTDactivity is on track to eclipse that.Larger deals are making a comeback, with 3transactions over $10B in 2025 vs. zero in 2024. We also saw a return to later-stage dealsafter a historically unusual share of private early-stage deals in 2024. Oncology and I&Iremain the dominant TA’s, with metabolic/obesity a close #3. China licensing continues toincrease. Woody Polglase+1 917 344 8314woody.polglase@bernsteinsg.com Wen Jiang, Ph.D., CFA+1 917 344 8318wen.jiang@bernsteinsg.com Pharma demand. Demand has clearly stepped-up with the scale of LOE exposuremore than doubling recent years.However, not all demand is driven by revenue-gaps,and we believe players such as Lilly are likely to be highly active in preclinical up to phase2 deals. Some of those that need to fill gaps might be contained by financial freedom& waiting for data-cards to turn-over (e.g. BMY, PFE), while others (e.g. MRK, JNJ, LLY)have more capacity, & others yet (e.g. ABBV, GILD) are more likely to do incremental dealsmanaging risk and reward. Ian Hall+1 917 344 8597ian.hall@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Biotech supply. We screen companies based on the following criteria: (1) valuationand revenue potential; (2) stock performance; (3) TA focus; (4) lack of partnerships.Of companies with sizable near-term revenue, the following landed in the top quantile onour mechanical screen: MIRM, BBIO, IPN, JAZZ, AXSM, ASND, LQDA. Top 10 inflectioncompanies, i.e. earlier stage without sizable near-term revenue: CGON, ERAS, CELC, DNTH,COGT, ABVX, ROIV, ORKA, TNGX, RVMD. Last year, our screen achieved a 2.6x signal tonoise ratio and 25% hit rate for inflection companies (i.e. 25% of companies above certainthreshold were acquired, vs. ~10% for the entire basket). Christian Moore+1 917 344 8555christian.moore@bernsteinsg.com Tying it together… Who might buy whom?Building on our mechanical screen, weapplied a qualitative lens for pharma companies we believe have the largest demand - MRK,LLY, GILD, ABBV - as well as the two largest biotechs in our coverage, VRTX and REGN. ForMRK, we highlight a large-RVMD deal as perhaps not off the table, TNGX, NUVL, or COGTas potential oncology pipline boosters, ABVX for immunology expansion (also relevantfor LLY, or ABBV) & GPCR as a wild-card collaboration. For LLY we also identify MDGL,NUVL, PRAX. For GILD (likelihood has dropped with the recent spate of deals) we suggestMIRM as liver-adjacency, CRVS & NKTR in immunology or IMNM in oncology - which alsomight be relevant for ABBV, along with XENE/PRAX to add in CNS. For REGN, we thinkmulti-$B deals are unlikely, but our potential list includes VOR, BLTE, and ANNX. For VRTX,we struggled to identify plausible potential targets - DYN and DSGN were the best wecould come up with. The following screen well and look qualitatively plausible but aren’tnecessarily a great fit with “high-demand” large pharmacos: ERAS, CYTK, APGE, KYMR. See appendix for list of companies mentioned herein and whether Bernstein covers them. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS US Biotechnology.We rate the following companies Outperform: ALNY, BBIO, BEAM, BMRN, REGN, ROIV, VRTX. We rate thefollowing companies Market-Perform: ALLO, ARWR, BHVN, BIIB, CRSP, DYN, IMVT, IONS, NTLA, SRPT. US Biopharmaceuticals.We rate the following companies Outperform: LLY & GILD. We rate the following companies Market-Perform: AMGN, ABBV, MRK, MRNA, PFE, BMY Table Of Contents Current Context: 2025 Recap and Key Themes for 2026........................................................................................................................................3Analysis of M&A deals from 2016-Present....................................................................................................................................................................6Demand: Global Large Pharma M&A Appetite, Needs, and Feasibility..............................................................................................................10Supply: Biotech M&A Screen Based on Historically Predictive Criteria............................................................................................................ 26Connecting the dots between supply and demand… who might buy whom?................................................................................................ 29Appendix..........................................................................................................................................................