2025贸易战背景下美欧企业现金分配策略差异研究报告：股东分红抑或客户融资（英）

Cash back to shareholders or cashstuck to finance customers?American and European firms dealwith trade war differently Allianz Research18 June 2025 Content Page 3-4Executive Summary Page 5-13A visible transatlantic divide in Working CapitalRequirements Page 14- 18US corporates: from warehouses toshareholders’ wallets Page 19-21Europe’s hidden bankers Page 22Statistical appendix Page 23Methodology ExecutiveSummary •Because of high economic volatility and uncertainty, Working CapitalRequirements (WCR) increased by 2 days globally in 2024.Working CapitalRequirements (WCR) rose by +2 days globally in 2024, reaching 78 days –the highest level since 2008 – with no major signs of easing in early 2025.This increase reflects the cost of adaptation to high uncertainty and tighterfinancial conditions as trade frictions and recession risks on the horizon haveaffected turnover growth, payment terms and inventory strategies. This isparticularly true for Western Europe, which stood out with a +4-day rise Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Research Maxime LemerleLead Advisor, Insolvency Research •The US stands out with a decrease of WCR by -3 days. Firms have beendestocking (apart from a couple of sectors) to unlock capital and redirectit to shareholders – a very risky strategy in times of trade war.Despitea sharp rebound in imports – nearly USD1trn in Q1 2025, up +27% y/y,US business inventories fell, indicating selective frontloading rather thanwidespread stockpiling. The pharmaceuticals and medical goods sectoralone imported the equivalent of 40% of its total 2024 imports in Q1, drivenby tariff-related urgency, while clothing inventories fell despite a +10% rise in Sivagaminathan SivasubramanianESG and Data Analystsivagaminathan.sivasubramanian@allianz-trade.com Pierre LebardPublic Affairs Officer •Rising payment terms (DSO) are the primary force behind WCR pressure,especially in Europe.In 2024, global Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) rose byover +2 days, slightly exceeding the increase in WCR, while Days PayablesOutstanding (DPO) expanded only marginally (+1 day) and Days InventoriesOutstanding (DIO) remained stable. At year-end, 44% of firms had DSO above •European firms continue to be the invisible banks for their customers,providing an estimated EUR11bn in trade credit and bearing growingfinancial risks.Amid sluggish growth and weak factory orders, Europeancorporates increased DIO and maintained elevated receivables, while DPOshortened – resulting in significantly higher WCR. With bank lending in the providing an estimated EUR11bn in trade credit to their customers betweenQ4 2024 and Q1 2025. This informal corporate lending nearly matchedbanks’ monthly new credit flows over the same period. However, this strategycarries substantial risks: In the event of a growth shock or interest rate hike,the financing burden could rise dramatically. For instance, a trade warscenario involving “Liberation Day” tariffs could lower GDP by -1pp, forcing •Almost all sectors faced a prolonged extension in DSO – notably transportequipment (+11 days) and electronics (+4) – leading to a broad-basedrebound in WCR with relatively few sectors managing to reduce inventoriesin parallel.Overall, in 2024, seven sectors – transport equipment (+16 daysglobally), retail (+4), chemicals (+3), metals (+3), software/IT services (+3),machinery equipment (+2) and energy (+0) – experienced WCR increasesacross North America, Western Europe and APAC, mainly due to weak A visible transatlantic divide inWorking Capital Requirements Global Working Capital Requirements (WCR) reboundedin 2024, reaching the highest level since 2008 (+2 daysto 78), with limited signs of softening in Q1 2025.Like inprevious years, the trend in WCR shifted from quarter toquarter, reflecting the seasonality of business operationsalong the year. Global changes proved to be similar tothe usual (Figure 1) in the first three quarters, with asharp increase in Q1 (+7 days q/q) followed by relief inQ2 (-2) and a small rise in Q3 (+1). But the end of the yearindicated less relief than in recent years (-4 days compared key exception as it prolonged the pause recorded in 2023with a broad-based decrease (-3 days including -2 in theUS and -4 in Canada). Interestingly, the other regions takentogether show a stable WCR after three consecutive yearsof moderate increases, but this ‘combined’ view still hidesmore volatile and uneven trends across regions due tothe more limited number of reporting firms and sectorialbiases. De facto, average WCR recorded a large reboundin CEE (+10 days from -4 in 2023), but dropped back in theMiddle East (-11 days from +12 in 2023) and Africa (-2 daysfrom +2 in 2023) and barely stabilized in South America.Overall, two out of three countries in our sample posted anincrease in WCR, notably France (+8 days) and Germany(+2) in Western Europe – where the UK and Spain stood outamong exceptions – as well as China (+4), Singapore (+2)and South Korea (+1) in AP