2024年全球海上保险报告-IUMI Berlin 2024

Astrid SeltmannCefor analyst/actuary & IUMI FF vice chairastrid.seltmann@cefor.no Berlin – Bear – Berlin bears.Wall – Art – Wall art.History – Architecture – Culture.Diverse – Colourful ! Contents •Issues 2024•Global marine insurance market•P&I•Offshore energy•Cargo•Hull•Special issues•The 2024 oracle #IUMI2024 Issues 2024 •War(Challenge to quantify, partly included in standard covers, partly with specialised war insurers) #IUMI2024 Please note & Disclaimer Figures reflect the2024 state of reporting. Figures include estimatesfor a number of countries.Data for previous years often adjusted retrospectively. Data is reported to the degree possible according to the agreed IUMI definitions (seehere)but may not be consistent across countries. Forcomparison between years, use the updated premium/loss ratio data as of 2024!1)Comparing this year’s presentation to last year’s presentation may lead to wrong conclusions as itignores the retrospective update of figures. Focus is onidentifying market trends.Absolute figures are subject to error margins (reportingbacklog, retrospective adjustments, wrong in-/exclusion of portfolios…). All information given is of informational and non-binding character. Figures related to the marine market’s performance reflectmarket averages.They do notdisclosesingle units’ results. As with all averages, individual units may out- or underperform compared to theaverage. IUMI aims to provide information as available and raise consciousness for the importance of a fact-based evaluation of the risk exposure covered – and inspire everyone to critically evaluate real andseeming facts! 1)for IUMI members athttps://iumi.com/statistics/iumi-member-statistics #IUMI2024 Contents •Issues 2024•Global marine insurance market•P&I•Offshore energy•Cargo•Hull•Special issues•The 2024 oracle #IUMI2024 Marine premiums 2023 –by line of business Total estimate 2023: USD 38.9 billion / Change 2022 -> 2023: 5.9%NB: Exchange rate effects *Global HullTransport/CargoMarine LiabilityOffshore/Energy * other than P&I covered by clubs of International Group. #IUMI2024 Increase in premiums all lines 2020-2023 NB: Absolute premiums reflect thecombined effect of changes in thetotal insured volume/values andapplied rates per unit. Drivers: trade volume/values, vesselvalues, exchange rates, geopoliticalchanges, market conditions(capacity) #IUMI2024 Marine premiums 2023 – by region Premium (USD) by region 2014-2023as of 2024 Drivers: increase/decrease intrade volume/values, marketconditions (rates, capacity),exchange rates. War part of the story but difficultto quantify/single out. 2023: USD 38.9 bill.2022: USD 36.8 bill. (as of 2024) USD Exchange rates 2014-2024 Index 2014=100%, against selected currencies, as of December each year (2024 as of July) Statistics in USD are influencedby exchange rates. Varies between currencies. Premium trends may lookdifferent in local currency,particularly for cargo. Contents •Issues 2024•Global marine insurance market•P&I•Offshore energy•Cargo•Hull•Special issues•The 2024 oracle #IUMI2024 P&I International Group – Income Gross calls 2023 (premiums) – by operational location, Source: Int. Group of P&I Clubs Third consecutive year with premium increases #IUMI2024 P&I Pool claims by policy year 2022/23 low level of pool claims,after increased level in the years2019-2021. 2024 claims still to develop butsome increase back to moreaverage claims levels expected(on average 20 claims per year). The Baltimore bridge accident isstill under investigation, includingits financial impact on P&I. P&I complex business with highliabilities. Seewww.igpandi.org #IUMI2024 Contents •Issues 2024•Global marine insurance market•P&I•Offshore energy•Cargo•Hull•Special issues•The 2024 oracle #IUMI2024 Offshore energy premium 2023 Total estimate: USD 4.6 billion / Change 2022->2023: 4.6% Average oil price per month (USD/bbl) World bank commodity price data, January 2005 to July 2024 #IUMI2024 Offshore energy premium 2014-2023:bottom passed Upward trend after bottom wasreached in 2019, as result of oil pricerally in 2020 and subsequentstabilisation at high level. Recent years saw reallocation ofmarket shares. Future trend will depend on oil priceand insurance market capacity. IUMI: Premiums reported by associations. Somedouble-reporting due to global nature of business.=> Some overestimation of global premium. wtw (Willis Tower Watson):Based on Lloyds dataalone, global premium estimated by assumingLloyds represents a certain market share.=> Underestimation of global premium. Trendstarted to deviate after decrease in Lloyds share. #IUMI2024 WELD Upstream Energy losses 2001-2023 versus est. upstream premiums Source: Willis Towers Watson (wtw); Losses excess of US$1m as of April 2024 Long backlog inreporting/payingenergy losses.Youngest yearsnot mature yet,will still develop. Energy premium versus mobile units,day rates, oil priceIndex 2014=100 Oil pri