全球经济展望：穿越不确定性的山谷

Through the valley of uncertainty MichelMartinez+33 1 56 37 34 29michel.martinez@sgcib.com Johannes Groen+12122784228johannes.groen@sgcib.com Michelle Lam+852 2166 5721michelle.lam@sgcib.com Wei Yao+852 2166 4983wei.yao@sgcib.com Fabien Bossy+33 1 58 98 28 73fabien.bossy@sgcib.com SamCartwright+442077624506sam.cartwright@sgcib.com Anatoli Annenkov+44 20 7676 7625anatoli.annenkov@sgcib.com Jin Kenzaki+81 802162 3727jin.kenzaki@sgcib.com Dev Ashish+91 80673 14381dev.ashish@sgcib.com Kunal Kundu+91 8067318266kunal.kundu@sgcib.com Research contributionsfromJafer JiangLucasPuttre Perez Llorca Page left blank intentionally TABLE OFCONTENTS Key calls.....................................................................................................................4Key forecasts vs consensus..........................................................................................5War shock–Keep calm and stay vigilant........................................................................7Box 1NiGEM modelHow an oil shock works through a macroeconomic model.............................12AI to make or break it................................................................................................13Box 2AI and global tradeWinners of the AI capex boom..............................................................17United States-Real-economy resilience, sticky inflation..............................................18Euro area–(Still) poised for a prolonged cyclical recovery............................................21Box 3GermanySpillovers from fiscal stimulus larger than trade impact....................................25Box 4Euro area housingThe downturn is ending..........................................................................27Box 5UK politicsPolitics risks persist.............................................................................................28China–End of deflation, but little rebalancing.............................................................29Japan–Targeted fiscal easing, BoJ tightening still on track..........................................31EM ex-China–Structural momentum intact.................................................................33Box 6South Korea’s reforms Laying the ground for re-rating.....................................................39Box 7Fiscal dominance in IndiaBe wary of the emerging signs...................................................40Box 8LatAm electoral cycleIdeologies shape fiscal outcomes...................................................41Box 9CEE resilienceStructural shifts, strong services, and the AI boom...........................................42Forecast tables.........................................................................................................43Growth and inflation outlook..........................................................................................................43Monetary policy outlook–Key rates...............................................................................................44Ten-year government bond outlook...............................................................................................45FX outlook........................................................................................................................................46Elections Calendar....................................................................................................47Event Calendar.........................................................................................................48 Key calls Globaleconomy: AIcapexboomtosurvivethewar shock ◼TheMiddle Eastwar shock is, for now, more inflationary than recessionary,withtheeffectspushing back on central bankeasing.Global growthappearsresilient,butnot immune.The longer the war lasts, the more the storyis likely toshift from demand resilience to supplyconstraints. ◼AIisstillset to bethe mainsource ofsupport for global growth in 2026,boostinginvestmentand trade across major economies, even if the productivity pay-off remainsuncertain.We think fears of rapid, large‑scale AI‑driven labour displacement are overstated,whereas the return on soaring AI capexisamoregenuine source ofconcerninthe medium term. US:resilientgrowth, sticky inflation, higher-for-longer rates ◼Growth stillappearsresilient in the near term,cushionedby fiscal impulsesand AI capex.Labour-market conditions are easing only gradually rather than deteriorating sharply.◼Inflation persistence is reinforced by the oil shock.We expect underlying price pressures,especially in services, to remain sticky, while the recent oil shock adds another layer of upsiderisk and uncertainty.◼Fed.Wenow expecta prolonged hold this year, with any easing pushed into next year andlikely to be moderate, conditional on clearer evidence of softer inflation andgrowth. Euroarea: (still) poised for a prolonged cyclical recovery ◼The recovery is broadening, supported by German fiscal ea