2025特朗普关税政策对零售市场及消费者行为的影响研究报告

The Trump Administration’s trade policy has upended retailers’ businessplans and consumers’ buying plans. While the fine details change daily, Where we stand The Trump Administration’s tariff policies have been a rapidly moving target.Despite their fluid nature, tariffs of at least 10% remain in place on productsarriving in the U.S. from most of the world. President Trump paused “reciprocaltariffs,” which the administration calculated based on trade deficits, a week after Tariffs on many Canadian and Mexican goods remain in place at 25%, whichTrump said he enacted because those countries contributed to the U.S. fentanylcrisis. China remains a special case. The Trump Administration initially applied Much remains murky about where tariffs are headed. The administrationannounced at one point that smartphones, computers and microchips would beexempted from Chinese tariffs but within days backtracked and said they’d be Supply Chain Dive has been tracking tariffs by country. You can alsoread a partial timeline of tariffs produced by PBS. Shifting behavior What we do know is that existing tariffs and the prospect of more to come have changed How retailers are reacting Signifyd data shows that ecommerce merchants during Q1 were much more cautious aroundpricing during the tariff run-up than they were a year ago. In 2024, online merchants lowered April made significantly more dramatic moves this year, compared to last. In 2024, onlinehome goods prices increased by 0.66% in the first three months of the year. This year, pricesrose by 1.58%. Luxury goods prices increased by 0.17% in 2024. In 2025, they shot up by 1.22%. 1.22% And while the retail response to tariffs has been described as “waitand see,” merchants have not been waiting to see where this tradewar will end. They’ve been acting and actively preparing. Different Raising prices to offset higher costs due to tariffs. ■Redesigning supply chains to work with alternate suppliers ■Canceling orders from other countries. ■Accelerating previous plans to close U.S. stores given tariffs’ ■Moving inventory, particularly from China, into warehouses with ■Delaying initiatives to increase cross-border sales. ■Working with buy now, pay later firms to offer longer-term How consumers are reacting Consumers are reacting to higher prices and the threat of higher prices. Some analysts attributea bump in March retail sales to shoppers’ attempts to buy ahead of higher tariffs. Signifyd datashows March was a solid month for online shopping and significantly better than February’s2% year-over-year increase. But the 8% year-over-year increase was in line with January’s Consumers outside the U.S. are also changingtheir behavior in response to tariffs and thetalk around them. Ecommerce shipmentsfrom the U.S. to Canada, Mexico and While a slowdown due to tariffs in whatmight be considered ecommerce exportsfrom the U.S. initially appears counterintuitive,consider the backlash that accompanied the tariffannouncements. Canada, for instance, launcheda robust “Buy Canadian” campaign and MexicanPresident Claudia Sheinbaum, while negotiating with Trump, reminded her constituentsthat “Mexico is not a colony of anyone.”31% YEAR OVER YEAR In Q1 online sales shipped from the U.S. to Mexican consumers were down 31% year overyear; sales to Canadian customers fell 6% and sales to customers in Europe and the UK fell12%. Meanwhile, sales from merchants within those geographies to customers in the same Lessons from the past The global shock caused by the Trump Administration’s tariff policieshas been likened to the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of the breadth of It’s useful to remember the changes in consumer behavior that emergedduring the pandemic. Ecommerce flourished for obvious reasons. And sodid incidents of consumer abuse by some looking for opportunity amid the At the height of the pandemic, 33% of consumers polled by Survataadmitted to falsely claiming a product never arrived or arrived inunsatisfactory condition in order to keep the product and secure a refund.Pre-pandemic, only 8% admitted to filing a false item-not-received (INR) Have you ever falsely claimed that an online ordernever arrived or that the product that did arrive Experts at the time attributed the rise in bad behavior to greater use of the internet forshopping and growing sophistication among online shoppers. But they also noted that when Recent tariff-era data is already showing signs that consumers might be returning to that chaoticfooting — or at least that tariff sticker shock, or the prospect of it, is changing their behavior. The week after Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, the value of consumerabuse chargebacks on orders shipped from the U.S. to Canadian customers spiked alongwith anti-U.S. sentiment in Canada. The value of the average claim doubled, in fact, potentially History provides another lesson from Donald Trump’s first-term tariffs in 2017. When the TrumpAdministrati