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China Economy:Reflation broadens upstream, while final demand still lags

2026-04-13 Frank Li 招银国际朝新G

3月CPI同比1.0%，环比下降0.7%，核心CPI同比1.1%，环比下降1.1%。食品价格同比增速回落至0.3%，主要受猪肉和蔬菜价格下降拖累；能源价格同比增速上升至3.4%，主要受燃油价格上涨推动。核心CPI和服务通胀放缓，显示内需仍显疲软。PPI同比转正至0.5%，环比上升1.0%，主要受能源和上游原材料价格上涨推动，但下游消费品价格仍处低位。

报告认为，当前通胀复苏更多由上游传导，下游需求仍显不足，房地产和大宗消费数据疲软，表明通胀复苏不均衡，尚未形成需求驱动。短期内上游资源、能源、工业和高股息价值股表现较好，但消费、地产和国内周期性行业的再定价仍需家庭需求更明确的复苏。

展望未来，预计CPI、PPI和GDP平减指数将从2025年的0.1%、-2.6%和-1%回升至2026年的0.8%、1%和0.9%。若房地产和耐用品需求未能进一步改善，央行降息可能推迟至第三季度，预计LPR降10个基点，RRR降50个基点。

China Economy:Reflation broadens upstream, while final demand still lags

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China Economy:Reflation broadens upstream, while final demand still lags

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