Rivian公司更新：收益、R2与Uber合作

RatingBuy Company Update North AmericaUnited States ConsumerAutos & Auto Technology Earnings, R2, and Uber Valuation & Risks Edison Yu 1Q26 preview Research Analyst+1-212-250-7263 For 1Q, Rivian delivered 10,365 vehicles (+20% YoY), higher than our estimate andslightly higher than the mid-point of the company’s guided range of 9-11k. Wemodel 1Q revenue at $1.4bn, inclusive of $470m from Software and Services whichshould boost margins. Our EBITDA estimate is -$495m, slightly better thanconsensus at -$508m. This leads to free cash flow burn of -$701m. Separately,Rivian unlocked an additional $1bn in funding late last month from VW followingthesuccessful completion of winter testing of its production-intent zontalarchitecture on the VW ID.EVERY1. This model is positioned as an affordable small4-door hatchback, entering production next year at starting price of 20k euros. Winnie DongResearch Analyst+1-212-250-5121 Laura LiResearch Associate+1-212-250-2266 James Mulholland, CFAResearch Associate+1-212-250-6026 R2 ramp on track We had the opportunity to visit Rivan’s JoyRide at SXSW last month and came awayimpressed with the vehicle’s build and off-road capabilities. For its price, we thinkR2’s value proposition is strong within the mid-size SUV segment. The interiorprovides a surprisingly spacious cabin with ample rear-seat leg room. Importantly,the design, build, and price point, in our view, should help Rivian convertreservations into real orders going forward. In the meantime, this year’s story is theproduction cadence of the vehicle which appears on track. We also don’t thinkconsensus estimates are aggressive and Rivian has done a good job managingvolume expectations. To start, Rivian will prioritize performance trim packages,limiting the number of paint and wheel options as an operational decision, to widenmanufacturing degrees of freedom. This is so it can meet customer deliverytimeline expectations in weeks as opposed to months. For the year, our estimatesremain largely the same at ~63k in deliveries and -$2.0bn EBITDA. Uber robotaxi partnership in focus Rivian announced a partnership with Uber last month on robotaxi; we were notsurprised by the move but the timing came earlier than we would have expectedgiven Rivian’s focus had seemingly been on the consumer side. High level, it seemsUber is willing to work with (and/or fund) just about every autonomy effort out thereto ensure there are alternatives to Tesla/Waymo, although the Rivian deal certainlyseems to be one of deepest in scope. From Rivian’s perspective, this is a clearpositive, in our view, providing a large source of funding to invest in autonomy. Uberplansto invest up to$1.25bn through 2031 depending on hitting certainperformance milestones, aiming to deploy an autonomous fleet of R2 robotaxis, 10 April 2026Autos & Auto TechnologyRivian available exclusively through the Uber platform. An initial $300 million investmenthas been committed to following signing. Operationally, the first phase ofdeployment involves 10k vehicles, starting in San Francisco and Miami in 2028,expanding to 25 cities by 2031. There is then an option to purchase up to 40k moreunits beginning in 2030. Uber is also expected to pay certain software licensingfees. In conjunction with the announcement, management indicated that it won’tbe able to meet its EBITDA positive goal in 2027 (which is not something we/consensus expected anyway), but also that the meaningful increase in R&Dexpenses over time should be covered by Uber’s capital commitment. Reiterate Buy and $23 price targetBased on the current delivery guidance and our confidence in the modest R2 ramp targets for the year, we believe the company’s mid-term outlook looks compelling,supported by optionality from autonomy. Reiterate Buy rating and $23 price target. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 1.Within t