三星财报提振存储行业，上调SK海力士目标价至165万韩元

Weekly theme: more optimistic on memoryfollowing Samsung’s upbeat 1Q results Price Objective Change Why Samsung’s upbeat 1Q results can be ahighlightWe believe that Samsung Electronics’1Q26 preliminary OP (W57tn: ~3x QoQ increase or ~9x YoY on the back of very strong DRAM and NAND ASP) confirmed a memory super-cycle. As such, we expect upbeat memory results and bullish guidance during the 1Qearnings season (2H April). Hynix ready todeliver super-cycle earnings; raise POWe raise our POon SK Hynix to W1,650,000 from W1,400,000 following +20%/+19% EPS revisions for 2026/27E. This is based on 13-15% higher ASP assumptions forDRAM/NAND to be consistent with Samsung’s upbeat memory chip prices. We are stillusing a fair P/E of 2026-27E 7x (unchanged), but our PO implies more than 50% upsidepotential. Like Samsung, we expect a few/several times larger OP in 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q26(W40tn/55tn/61tn/62tn) vs previous peak cycles or W200tn+ pa in 2026-28 even withstable ASP (or slightly down) through 2H26 and 2027-28. Nanya Tech alsoshines, even with legacy DRAM salesWe lift our earnings estimates for NanyaTech, but 2026-27E EPS revisions are only by low-single-digit%. Two reasons: (1) we have already reflected upbeat 1Q26 sales(NT$49bn–up 7x YoY) in our previous earnings model update, and (2) we still assumestable ASP (limited increase) for 2H and 2027 after the 2H25-1H26 upturn period(Nanya Tech’s DRAM ASP: already +65% QoQ in 1Q and then +30% in 2Q, according toour new analysis). Thus, our PO (NT$400; target 2026-27E P/E still 11x, but higher thanKorean memory peers as a pure legacy DRAM play). DRAM spot pricemuted, but 2Q ASP still risingDRAM spotprices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, and even NAND recently. However, 2Q DRAM/NAND ASP (still 50%+ lower than spot) will likely rise further by30%+/- QoQ amid well-negotiated contract prices. True, DRAM/NAND spot prices areexpected to decline further for the rest of 2Q or in 2H, but we believe it is too early tosee a hard-landing (just soft-landing at sub-10% MoM drop) on tight supply (ofcommodity memory) or capacity shift to HBM4e, LPDDR5, GDDR7, etc. Raise global memory forecasts using 10%+ higher ASPWe raise our2026-28 global DRAM/NAND sales forecasts by 10%+/18%+ using 10%+ higher ASP vs our earlier assumptions. This is just a follow-up action to reflect memorychipmakers’recently confirmed upbeat ASP for 1Q/2Q26 (up 100%+/- vs 4Q25). OurQoQ ASP assumptions for 2H26 (slightly up) and 2027 (slightly down) remain largelyunchanged. That said, our industry model reveals a few times larger annual market sizesfor 2026-28 (DRAM: US$400bn+; NAND: US$240bn+; vs sub-US$100bn in 2018/2024-25 peak periods). This should warrant high margin/ROE profile for almost all memorychipmakers. See Exhibit 3 for our global memory forecast summary. Global memory forecasts Exhibit3: We expect globalDRAM salesto grow by near 3x YoY (+211%)in 2026Eeven after 86%/52%growthin 2024/25; key contributors should bestrong ASP rebound (+162% YoY). NAND sales also expected to triple +197% YoY in 2026, after low-single digit growth in 2025, driven by robust ASP(+146% YoY).Global memory forecast summary – top-down approach Exhibit4:Following Samsung’s exceptionally strong 1Q26 prelim results, we reviseupour 2026-28DRAM sales assumptions further by 10%-primarilyhigher ASP-driven (DRAM ASP US$9.7/$10 per 8Gb equivalent in 2026/27); NAND sales revised up by 18-24% in 2026/27, due to higher ASP assumption(NAND ASP US$6.0/$5.7 per 256Gb equivalent in 2026-27) following recent price rally.Global memory forecast revisions – top-down analysis Exhibit10:Only2-3weeks for both DRAM and NAND as of 1Q26-lower than normal (1-2 months); a mild increase possible led byNAND in 4Q26Memory chipmakers' inventories-finishedchips in weeks Exhibit11:Both DRAM and NAND fabs fully utilized ex old idlecapacity as of 1Q26Memory chipmakers' fab utilization Record high capex includes heavy infrastructure spending Exhibit14:Samsung, Hynix and Micron (big-3 DRAM makers) led global memory capex but itincludes lots of non-WFE spending (shell fab, utilities, TCB/HB); overall capex growth rate likely todecelerate through 2027-28 vs 40%+ CAGR in 2023-25DRAM capex trend 2026/27E HBM TAM expansion to US$81bn/110bn Exhibit18:We maintain our bullish view on HBM. We assume strong growth in 2026 sales (US$81bn; +136% YoY)driven by solid ASP growth (+31% YoY)and robust bit growth (+80%). Hynix’s proven 12-hi HBM3e and HBM4 (mass production started in 4Q25) should be the key contributors; industry averageOPM near 50% thanks to Hynix’s high margin profile (60%+); no downturn in 2027 given volume growth and cost reduction fully offset price cut.Global HBM market – record high revenue continues into 2027E (US$110bn) Global HBM market share by company SK Hynix–HBM earnings outlook stillstronger than Samsung’s GPU spec tables Exhibit25:Substantial HBM content growth expected in 2025/2026-27, led by B300, Rubin, and Rubin UltraNVIDI