战争如何扰乱市场和经济

April 2026 Luke Templeman | Thematic Strategist |Luke.Templeman@db.com| +44 207 541 0130Galina Pozdnyakova | Research Analyst |Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com| +44 207 547 4994 IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS. Summary: it may be too early to call the end of the conflict with Iran despite theencouraging signs. Thus, we are watching for how resilient the disruption to the world’seconomies and markets will be for the rest of 2026. A reset? Or the return to a dangerous status quo? •Following the announcement of the two-week conditional ceasefirebetween the US and Iran, attention is now turning to exactly how oiltankers might begin to transit the Strait of Hormuz. •There are inconsistencies in the logistics with Iran claiming the US hasaccepted its control over the strait and that transit will only be allowedunder the “supervision” of its armed forces and subject to “technicallimitations”. •There is also a real fear that the broader situation may return to the statusquo of US sanctions and fruitless talks while a reinvigorated Iran restartsits nuclear programme. That will be a key discussion point ahead of likelyUS-Iran negotiations on Friday in Pakistan. •On a day-by-day basis, there are deep uncertainties as to how long theceasefire can hold. •Upcoming negotiations will be difficult given Iran has claimed that the USwill offer sanctions relief and security guarantees, things that may noteventuate in part or full. The most important demand in Iran’s 10-pointplan, its right to enrich uranium, also crosses a US red line. It wasn’t just oil–other commodities have surged and stayed high WTI oil prices jumped above brent–that is extremely unusual this decade European inflation has climbed, however, the energy shock is so far nothing like that aroundthe time Russia invaded Ukraine. Once April’s figures come in, they seem on track to show a continuing upwards trend in energy inflation. But Europe’s dependenceon the Middle East does not compare with itsdependence on Russia five years ago. The war has exacerbated the falling trend for US growth forecasts Economic growth expectations were falling before the war in Iran started. However, as more data points are released this month,some will very likely put downwards pressure ongrowth estimates. The drop in consumer confidence might be expected. How long it lasts will be influenced bythe resulting inflation. Consumer confidence is, at least partially, dependent on whether the uptick in input cost inflation remains robust. That willalso be influenced by how inflation filters through toconsumers. Some corporates may decide to absorb the costs themselves. Petrol prices It is an inescapable reality that people care about the price they pay at the pump. That has a disproportionate impact on theiroverall confidence in the economy and feeds throughto their voting intentions. Interest rate expectations have jumped Credit spreads ticked upwards as the war commenced, but they weren’t too concerned. Even as private credit and software worriescontinued to plague the market, and especiallyhigh-yield, investors seemed relatively sanguine about credit quality. The large amount of liquidity in the market certainly helps. Haven assets have been little help during the Iran war–a 2020s trendOur ‘haven indicator’ shows that traditional havens have been largely absent in the 2020s How our haven indicator works We take six traditional haven assets: 1.Gold2.US dollar3.Japanese yen4.Swiss franc5.10yr treasury6.10yr bund We then analyse their individual correlationwith the S&P 500 (our proxy for ‘risk’) overtime. Finally, we take an average of the sixcorrelations. The red shading indicates periods when theaverage havendid not work(ie, positivelycorrelated with the S&P 500). This includes: 1.Iran war in 20262.US tariff crisis in 20253.Peak fear about interest rate rises in 20224.Initial covid turmoil in 2020 The US dollar was an exception There was a sharp dichotomy between the risk-off period during the Iran war and the risk-off period during the tariff crisis in2025. This time, investors have been content with thesafety of the US dollar. That was very likely influenced by the fact that a kinetic conflict presented a different type of risk-off profile to the economic challenges last year. The political cost President Trump’s approval rating, and the estimate of the Republicans holding the Senate, has fallen during the last five weeks. Global equities–most were relatively stubborn considering the severity of the closure ofthe Strait of Hormuz Many investors have learned the lessons of several geopolitical shocks in the 2020s and were expecting a rapid rebound. It may be too early to be quite sooptimistic. Earnings estimates have stayed strong despite the energy shock Are investors rational? During the thick of the crisis, our