2026Q2亚洲量化策略：伊朗战争停火：如何布局？

Asia Quant Strategy Q226: Iran War ceasefire - How to position? The US-Iran ceasefire led to a sharp recovery in Asian markets but the risk-on sentimentgot tested yesterday. We believe, this could be the beginning of the end and is presentingan opportunity for investors to focus on pre-war trends and fundamentals- we recommendadding back some beaten down names. But, given the fragility of the situation, we wouldkeep the ‘high yield’ hedges on till more clarity emerges. For all our updated screens acrossAsia tech, India, Korea and China, see our updated deck - Asia Quant Strategy Deck Q226 Rupal Agarwal+65 6326 7641rupal.agarwal@bernsteinsg.com Cheng Zhang, CFA, CQF+852 2123 2636cheng.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Impact of war on valuations & risk-premium:Indonesia and India have seen sharp de-rating, now trading at -2SD and 10yr average valuations respectively. TW/AU still remainreasonably stretched (trading +1.7SD/+1.2SD above 10yr avg) and even KR is still tradingat record high PB and EV/EBITDA (though PE has come off). Equity risk-premium hasstarted rising in China and HK and showing early signs of pick-up in TW/KR/AU. Investor and analyst sentiment change?:Mar’26 was the worst FII outflow monthfor markets like Korea (-23.8bn USD), India (-14.2bn USD), Taiwan (-28.7bn USD) whileChina saw -105bn USD outflow overall in Q1. We expect foreign flow to return after suchextremes. India Energy, Tech, Staples, Real Estate fell to extreme unloved category - Tech/Staples now present rebound opportunities as earnings revisions are still upward trending.Interestingly, the war did not impact analyst sentiment towards TW/KR or tech as theycontinued to see strong upgrades. Interestingly, there is still room for upward revisionsto continue, though risk of extreme bullishness for Korea tech is high. However, CN/HKis seeing increased pace of downgrades while in India, breadth of earnings recovery hasnarrowed. We expect China to remain under pressure in the near-term, due to rising risk-premium, valuation downcycle and intensifying earnings downgrades while KR/TW tobenefit due to strong earnings cycle and a return to momentum chasing. Asia tech & cyclical sectors still look good:Asia tech is reasonably valued (22x fwd.PE ie. -0.5SD below 5yr mean), however, Semis, Electronic & Communication Equipmentand Software are trading at record high valuations. With extreme valuations but supportiveearnings revisions, we recommend being selective towards Semis, equipment andsoftware. We also recommend avoiding Interactive Media Services till valuations andearnings bottom and see risk of peak earnings for Computer peripheral. Cyclical sectors likeMaterials, Energy, Industrials are all expensive, Ind/Fin/Mat are also somewhat crowded,however earnings support remains strong. Style positioning:Momentum had a strong start to the year, before collapsing during thewar, down -14% along with growth. Earnings momentum and growth stocks are still atrecord valuations, peak earnings and peak crowding. However, price momentum has seensignificant de-rating, down to avg valuations and still seeing net upgrades, though with highcrowding risk. We recommend adding back some momentum exposure selectively. We alsokeep the high yield hedge that we added last month - it has ended up being the best style inQ1, up 6.2%, is still reasonably priced, seeing upgrades and remains a strategic exposurefor the region, having generated 16.6% CAGR over the last decade. We show our updatedscreens in Exhibit 30-Exhibit 32. For China, we maintain our barbell approach of low volstocks (defensive) and growth (risk-on proxy). For India, we keep the beaten down qualitybut add momentum to the mix. For Korea, we look for growth names. DETAILS 2026 has been an extremely volatile year so far and the divergence between major Asian markets is quite evident. In Q126,Korea has led (18%), followed by Thailand (14%) and Taiwan (9%) while Indonesia (-21%) suffered the most along with India(-18%). Post Iran conflict, in Mar, Korea (-25%), Indonesia (-16%), Philippines (-15%) and India (-14%) were the worst hit.However, April has again started off on a positive note for most Asian market with expectations of a broader de-escalation of thewar. The 2week ceasefire has helped bring back risk-on sentiment across markets. In this note, we look at how market dynamicsevolved through Q126 and how investors should position from here on while accounting for fundamental and sentiment shifts. EXHIBIT 1:In Q126, Korea has led (18%), followed by Thailand (14%) and Taiwan (9%) while Indonesia (-21%)suffered the most along with India (-18%). Post Iran conflict, in Mar, Korea (-25%), Indonesia (-16%), Philippines(-15%) and India (-14%) have been the worst hit Since the beginning of the year, Indonesia and India have seen the highest valuation correction - Indonesia is now tradingat 11.7x fwd. PE (-2SD below its 10yr average) and India is at 20.3x fwd. PE (just near its 10yr mean). On an absolute basis