中东能源：混乱是阶梯……以积极立场启动

MENA Energy: Chaos is a Ladder ... Initiating with a PositiveStance We initiate on the MENA Energy sector withOutperformratings onADNOC Gas (UAE),Fertiglobe (UAE),DEWA (UAE),Arabian Drilling (Saudi), andADES (Saudi). Our callsare anchored in:LNG-optional plus domestic gas growth(ADNOC Gas),drilling-cyclerecovery(ADES & Arabian Drilling),tightening urea balances(Fertiglobe), anda regulated,scale utility franchise(DEWA). We rateSABIC (Saudi)atMarket-Perform, reflectingrecord-low PP/PE operating rates(77% / 76%). Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.+212 5 22 86 79 41abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com Scaling or adapting or both?When you look across the MENA energy universe, you seetwo very different ways of creating value. Saudi Arabia is aboutscale, while the UAE is aboutportfolio agility. Saudi controls ~15% of global proved oil reserves with 12mbd maximumsustainable capacity, producing ~10mbd crude and ~11bcfd gas under the single Aramcoplatform that feeds a vast refining/petchem system—an integrated “machine” optimized forlow-cost barrels and molecules. By contrast, the UAE holds ~6% of global reserves, runs~4.85mbd capacity with a 5mbd target by 2027, and monetizes via subsidiary listings and JVs—e.g., ADNOC Gas, Fertiglobe, ADNOC Drilling, and ADNOC L&S, to recycle capital, crowd inpartners, and pivot faster into gas/LNG and low-carbon projects. Geology scripts scale; geopolitics edits agility.Wartime economics are noisy, but ourcoverage has been operationally resilient over the last month. ADNOC Gas continues toanchor domestic gas supply while preparing the Ruwais LNG (9.6mtpa by 2028); Fertiglobeleverages other assets in Algeria/Egypt to monetize urea upside and SABIC retains afeedstock advantage via ethane linkage ($3/mmbtu v. ~$4 in the US) and Red Sea access.Barring direct asset impairment, these businesses should exit periods of tension as relativewinners. Stock performances support our resilience case with Feb. 28–Mar. 31 stock perf.at Fertiglobe (+19%), Adnoc Gas (-6%), DEWA (-10%), ADC/ADES (-10%/-4%) and SABIC(+9%). Markets still price the multiple, not the machine. We lean into names where cashconversion and reinvestment runways are compounding faster than the headline EV/EBITDA:Preferred names: 1)ADNOC Gas: mispriced quality:If ROIC ≥20% and earnings visibilityhold, multiple normalization (vs. a still-wide discount to LT averages) becomes the pathof least resistance. 2)Fertiglobe: market tightness:We see ROIC >20% sustained aspost-2027 balances look structurally tighter (utilization >90%; urea >$400/t). Bernstein vs. consensus:we keep prices conservative. ADNOC Gas: we prefer assetefficiency over volume beta and model revenues –12%/–22%/–5% below cons. for2027/28/29, reflecting prudence on Ruwais commissioning + flat $70/bbl oil deck; theequity story is cash-yield + quality of earnings, not a heroic macro call. Fertiglobe: we seescope for post-2027 upside v. cons. that broadly assumes ~$450/t urea; our work suggestssupply tightness can outlast the current horizon if gas prices remain high and capex disciplinekeeps newbuilds in check. War-related dislocations may tighten nitrogen trade, but we treatthem as upside optionality, not base case. We would like to thank Youssef Takieddine for his contribution to this report. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate: •Adnoc Gas - Outperform (PT = AED4.08).•Fertiglobe - Outperform (PT = AED3.66).•Arabia Drilling - Outperform (PT = SAR109.30).•ADES - Outperform (PT = SAR22.24).•DEWA - Outperform (PT = AED3.36).•SABIC - Market-Perform (PT = SAR67.80). VALUATION COMPS TABLE EXHIBIT 1:MENA Valuation Table. (Share price as of April 07/26) EXHIBIT 2:MENA Energy Valuation comp. UAE coverage features a growing and consistent dividend policy whileSaudi coverage leverages attractive valuation. Seek value in Saudi and yield in the UAE. (Share price as of April 07/26) Table Of Contents Our valuation compass...........................................................................................................................................................................................................6Our best picks: Adnoc gas (o, pt = aed4.08) & Fertiglobe (o, pt = aed3.66).................................................................................................... 8A parenthood protection!...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9Our four macro catalysts across the region............................................................................................................................................................9Coverage in six charts......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10Centralized Scale vs. Adapti