紧张局势缓和？反弹时该买什么

Whatif the market’s biggest geopolitical risk fades?Whilst the LTconsequencesof the current conflict are hard to assess,headlinestentatively point towards an easing of tensions which is likely to see sharpsnapback in names which have suffered since late February. We screen thefallers by sector under our coverage and highlight 15 high conviction nameswhere we believe the investment cases remain robust. Short and sharpGlobal equities entered 2026 on a strong footing, supported record lowvolatility. That changed post close 27 February with start of airstrikes against Iran. Globalequities are down c5% from peak with Europe underperforming. Energy remains the only sectorthat has posted positive absolute returns (Ex1 – MSCI Sector Performance) whilst Consumer& Cyclicals have notably underperformed on more entrenched stagflationary expectations.Within Jefferies European coverage (800+ stocks), we highlight the following 15 high quality,large cap, liquid names trading below highs but well-positioned for recovery on a reversion inrisk sentiment back by solid fundamentals. Highlighted Opportunities ArcelorMittal (MT NA, $44bn MCAP, 23% u/s)Top steel pick focusing on value over volume;structural European policy tailwinds and underappreciated India market exposure. Carlsberg (CARLB DC, $18bn, 35% u/s)Rebalanced portfolio following Russian disposal andBritvic acquisition; underappreciated growth as a strong challenger in key global markets. .Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies Credit Agricole (ACA FP, $62bn, 26% u/s)High-return asset gathering improves miz;insurance tailwinds and provides a robust hedge protect against falling rates. Diageo (DGE LN, $43bn, 40% u/s)Management turnaround focuses on profit and cash;sharper execution and visible recovery support sustainable MT re-rating. EssilorLuxottica (EL FP, $110bn, 59% u/s)Structural share taker and industry consolidator;Meta partnership fuels accelerating top-line and margin expansion. Ferrari (RACE IM, $59bn, 20% u/s)Resilient luxury leader with HSD; unrivaled pricing powerand improving residual values drive a compelling valuation re-rating opportunity. Heineken (HEIA NA, $47bn, 50% u/s)Multi-year change programme drives superior growthand margin expansion; undemanding valuation and sharpened execution support a rating. Inditex (ITX SM, $192bn, 27% u/s)Distinctive supply chain MOAT drives share gains;undemanding valuation for HSD organic growth and best-in-class compounder. Infineon (IFX GR, $64bn, 25% u/s)Global leader in automotive power semiconductors;growing AI power demand and share gains in MCUs underpin long-term outperformance. Rheinmetall (RHM GR, $85bn, 30% u/s)Dominant defense pure-play capturing growingEuropeanbudgets;record order intake and revenues quadrupling by 2030 drive LToutperformance. Rolls-Royce (RR/ LN, $140bn, 27% u/s)Earnings upgrade cycle intact; stronger long-termgrowth from narrowbody re-entry and £7-9bn 2026-28 buyback potential. Saint-Gobain (SGO FP, $45bn, 62% u/s)Strategic reframing through new five-year targets;refocused business model to close the valuation gap against higher-valued industrial peers. Segro (SGRO LN, $13bn, 30% u/s)Premier modern logistics and DC portfolio; strongdevelopment pipeline and atttractive dividend support LT returns. Siemens (SIE GR, $210bn, 20% u/s)Healthineers divestment paves way for focused industrialleader; unique AI platform targets accelerated growth in automation and electrification. Siemens Healthineers (SHL GR, $50bn, 60% u/s)Quality compounder structurally growingmarket share; Varian innovation drives DD EPS growth and re-rating as overhang concernsfade. Screens For each sector (GICS Level 1), we highlight stocks within our coverage which have fallen morethan 5% since the start of the conflict across all market capitalisations. Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Financials Healthcare Industrials Materials Real Estate Tech Utilities Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Raj Jilka, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Mark Braley, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Ayodimeji Ojelade, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately r