零售业的未来：可能塑造未来十年的六大颠覆

Imagining tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities— By Marc-André Kamel, Stephanie Koszyk, Joëlle de Montgolfier,and Ruth Lewis The Future of Retail: Six Disruptions That Could Shape the Next Decade At a Glance To help executive teams prepare for looming disruptions in retail, Bain has constructed sixprovocative visions of the future that could materialize in the years ahead. These potential outcomes include a commoditization of core capabilities by automation, an Other disruptions to consider are grocers becoming fast-moving consumer goods businesses, Retailers are inundated with operational challenges today. But as they manage tariff turbulence and otherimmediate concerns, they can’t afford to lose sight of the long-term evolution of the strategic landscape. The tectonic movements gradually reshaping the industry haven’t weakened during this period of Consider “beyond trade” expansion. More and more, retailers are diversifying from traditional buying andselling of goods, gaining access to new profit pools in areas such as retail media, third-party marketplaces,financial services, and logistics. We calculate that “beyond trade” activities accounted for 15% of sales and Bain’s research across retail, consumer behavior, the application of artificial intelligence by retailers, andother fields convinces us that the industry will be comprehensively altered over the next 5 to 10 years by To help retailers prepare for the challenges and opportunities that will accompany this upheaval, we haveconstructed six provocative visions that could materialize over the next decade: •Algorithms and robots will run your business. •Customers will cheat on you with AI shopping agents. •Value will become more personal and contextual. •Grocers will become fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) businesses. •You might not need as many stores as you think. •The hunt for scale will cross borders. The Future of Retail: Six Disruptions That Could Shape the Next Decade No one has a defi nitive view of the future, of course, and the evolution of the industry will vary by market,sector, format, and channel. The disruption at the heart of these visions, however, is already beginning or Algorithms and robots will run your business Many retailers are already embracing artificial intelligence within their daily operations throughinnovations ranging from personalized pricing to digital twins that can simulate and optimize decisions. Not too far in the future, nearly every core retail process will be taken over by AI and physical forms ofautomation. Core activities such as merchandising, category management, pricing, and promotions will This shift will amount to a commoditization of many of the core retail capabilities that have traditionallyoffered a competitive edge to the retailers that mastered them. With new entrants able to deploy the sameexpertise through off-the-shelf AI tools, incumbents are unlikely to win by trying to play by the old rules. The Future of Retail: Six Disruptions That Could Shape the Next Decade Overall, retailers that don’t let algorithms and robots run key parts of their business might give away afew percentage points of profit margin. Bolder rivals will grab those savings and use them to gain new Yet even as the age of autopilot dawns, human intelligence will still be needed to make the biggestdecisions as well as to build, train, and validate AI models, among other things. Tomorrow’s industryleaders will find new ways to build a fresh competitive advantage, using their human talent in areas such Customers will cheat on you with AI shopping agents From a consumer’s perspective, shopping agents are likely to be one of the most exciting applicationsof AI over the coming years. Such agents will know a consumer’s preferences well enough to researchand buy goods on their behalf without having to ask for permission, anticipating what they’ll need and For retailers, however, AI shopping agents’ automated, brand-agnostic purchasing decisions couldthreaten their long-standing relationships with shoppers, posing one of their biggest strategic challenges Executive teams need to start planning today for the likely impact of AI shopping agents goingmainstream. How would their sales and profit hold up if 20% to 30% of shoppers regularly devolvetheir purchasing decisions to AI agents, say? Retailers must also rethink how they go about attracting It’s early days, but we see two strategic paths emerging. A retailer could try to ward off the disintermediationthreat by building its own AI shopping agent, which would require deep knowledge of the consumeracross all aspects of their lives, including shopping, banking, travel, work, and leisure. Alternatively, Value will become more personal and contextual With discount chains set to continue their rise, the pressure to keep prices low isn’t likely to abate in thecoming decade. Fortunately for retailers, advances in technology are making new efficiencies possib