流动展示：疲软的美元

The Lame Buck Scores on the Doors: oil 63.4%, commodities 44.7%, US$ 1.6%, gold 1.0%, cash 0.8%,int’l stocks -0.5%, HY bonds -1.1%, IG bonds -1.6%, govt bonds -1.6%, US stocks -5.4%,bitcoin -21.6% YTD. 27 March 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Pain trade either new highs led by private credit or new lows led by semis.” ZeitgeistII:“In a good market when the index falls below its 200-day moving averageinvestors cover their shorts, but in a bad market that’s when they sell their longs.” The Price is Right: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator sell signal ends (since Dec 17thSPX -4%, Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com panic but right now BofA trading rules show no bull capitulation (Table 3) or macro panic(GDP/EPS downgrades) for contrarians to buy.Tale of the Tape: bear markets in Presidential credibility = bear markets in US$ (see Nixon, Carter, Bush II–Chart 10); if Trump credibility structurally hit by Iran then abilityto jaw-jaw Wall St & force FDI inflows falls; we say US$ still in bear market... gold, Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: consumer discretionary at GFC’08 & COVID’20 relative lows(equal-weighted - Chart 2); consumer = fave contrarian long (esp. lower-income stocks)to trade Trump post-war pivot to address affordability & slump in approval ratings(Charts 3 & 4), for coming“AI = UBI = YCC”policy shift to protect workers, and to hedgeH2’2020s electoral shift from“populist capitalism”to“populist socialism”. Jessica GuoInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0033jessica.guo@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any other More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenotsuitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Weekly Flows: $2.7bn to bonds, $35.0bn from cash, $29.0bn from stocks, $6.3bn fromgold, $0.5bn from crypto. Flows to Know: •Cash: $35.0bn outflow, first and largest outflow in 10 weeks, •Gold: $6.3bn outflow, largest since Oct’25, •US Treasuries: $6.8bn inflow, largest 2-week inflow ($19.7bn) since Apr’25, •Short-term bonds (govt/corp <4 years): $13.3bn inflow, 3rdlargest ever, •Long-term bonds (>6 years): $4.7bn outflow, largest since Mar’20, 2ndlargest ever, •HY bonds: $3.3bn outflow, largest 3-week outflow ($13.5bn) since Apr’25, US equities: $23.6bn outflow, largest in 13 weeks, •Europe equities: $3.1bn outflow, largest since Apr’25, •Materials: $10.5bn outflow, largest ever. BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…63.4% stocks (lowest since May'25), 18.4% bonds(highest since Jun'25), 10.9% cash (highest since May’25); no GWIM selling…equity ETFshare count up 2% YTD, 1% past 4 weeks, and 0.3% past week; private clients buyingJapan, staples, materials vs selling bank loan, tech, and EM debt ETFs in past 4 weeks. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: down sharply from 8.4 to 7.4 (lowest level since Jul’25) ondeteriorating global stock index breadth, outflows from HY bonds and EM debt, widercredit spreads (HY and AT1 bonds); BofA Bull & Bear Indicator contrarian“sell signal”ends (since Dec 17thSPX -5%, peak-to-trough -7%); following end of prior BofA Bull & Bear sell signals (32 occasions since 2002) SPX & ACWI average returns just 1% in 3months;“old”BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 6.5 from 6.41. From Sell to Buy Signals: first trading rule to signal“buy”will be BofA Global BreadthRule;“buy signal”for global stocks triggered when net 88% of global equity indicestrading below 50-day and 200-day moving averages; hit -39% on Monday, but currently-16%, needs equity declines of roughly -2% in Asia Pac, -3% in EM, -14% in LatAm to hit The Gravy Pain: so many Q1“pain trades”for consensus…T-bills beating AIhyperscaler bonds, US$ beating Bitcoin, oil>gold, yield curve flatteners>steepeners,EM>US stocks; energy>tech, staples>banks, semis>software, micro>mega cap on theirbingo cards…; and much stock pain under-the-hood of S&P 500…336 stocks (67% ofindex) down more than 10%, 143 stocks (28% of index) down more than 20% sinceliquidity & peak AI capex boom optimism peaked late Oct; big corrections alwaysfollowed by