新兴市场化工股：一场由供应中断推动的反弹

EquitiesChemicals Adisruption-fuelled rally Emerging Markets ◆EMchemsupc16% sinceMiddle Eastconflict started onpricing tailwinds; Platts chemical index is upc60%in March Sriharsha Pappu*Global Head of Energy & MaterialsHSBC Bank plcsriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com ◆We view this as a one-timeboost toprofitability for 1-2quarters, with areturn to trough margins by year-end Lilyanna Yang, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, PetrochemsHSBCSecurities (USA) Inc.lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com ◆Weupdateour estimatesin line withrevisedsupply/demandbalances;update TPs forAlujain,APPC,Borouge, Orbia,Petkim,Rabigh,SIIG,and Yansab; no changetoratings Ildar Khaziev*, CFASenior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities AnalystHSBC Bank plcildar.khaziev@hsbc.com Adisruption-fuelled share pricerally:EM chemical stocksare upc16% since thestart of theMiddle East conflictvs a 13% drop in the Emerging Markets index. Thismove has been driven in our view by arotation intothesectorfrom previously Swati Soni*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Impact on balances:We’ve refreshedoursupply/demand models to capture theimpact of the Middle East conflict. Our base case assumes MENA capacity lossthrough April, with Asian production constrained by feedstock availability throughend-Q2’26. We also build in a one quarter delay to new capacity adds in Asia.Onthese assumptions, global operating rates effectively peak atc110% in March/April(i.e. driven by large inventory draws), underpinning record price increases across the commodity chemical complex. We expect rates to remain near sold-out in May before We update ourestimates toreflect the newsupply/demandbalances andrevised oil price forecasts.Weupdate our chemical product pricing assumptionsbased on an oil price ofUSD80/b from USD65/b for 2026,inline with HSBC's Oil and Revise TP’s, ratings unchanged:We update our TPs forall of our stocks exceptBraskem, Tasnee,Sabic,Kayan and Sipchem. Weleave our ratings unchanged—i.e.reiterate our Buy rating on Alujain, Braskem, Orbia and Rabigh; Reduce rating onTasnee and Petkim; and Hold rating on the rest of our chemical coverage.The key HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com A disruption-fuelledrally ◆EM chems have rallied c16% since the conflict started on pricingtailwinds; Platts chemical index is up c60% in March ◆We view this as a onetime boost toprofitability for 1-2 quarters, with a ◆We update our estimates in line with this; update TPs for Alujain,APPC, Borouge, Orbia, Petkim, Rabigh, SIIG, and Yansab; no Disruption fuels the rally Pricing tailwinds driving stocks higher EM chemicalstocksare up c16%since the start of the Middle East conflict compared to a 13%decline in the broader EM index.This move has been driven in our view by arotation intothesector from previously underweight positioning, fuelled by sharply higher petrochemical Chemical stocks up c16%since the onset of ME Quantifying thedisruption In our disruption playbook,(seeGlobal Chemicals: Disruption playbook, 10March 2026)we laidout howsupply shocksprogress from a steeper oil-driven cost curve (Phase 1) into outrightsupply constraints as MENA exports and feedstock flows are curtailed (Phase 2), with Across these phases, the key differentiator is access—to feedstock and to routes to market—with integrated and locally advantaged producers best positioned to capture widening spreads. Building on that framework,we model in MENA capacity loss through April with Asian capacityimpacted by feed constraints through end of Q2’26: we now assume MENA capacity loss Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights; as of 27March 2026 through April ’26, Asian production disruptions from feedstock constraints through end-Q2 ’26.We also build in a one quarter delay to new capacity adds in Asia.The net result is effectivelysold-out conditions through Q2 ’26, with implied operating rates peaking atc110% in However, we continue to view this as a largely one-time shock: operating ratesreturningto the low-80% range by Q3/Q4, profitability over-earns for 1–2 quarters, and margins revert towards troughlevels by year-end—with urea the notable exception where persistence is likely higher.For more KeyBuyratings Alujain (ALCO AB,CMP SAR28.30, Buy, TPcut to SAR34.0 from SAR44.0) Alujain offers cyclical upside to polypropylene (PP) spreads with potential cash-flownormalisation and improving shareholder returns if operating performance and the marginenvironment stabilise.The company’s debt-free balance sheet provides meaningful downside We cut our Q1 and Q2 operating rate assumptions for Alujainand also up