新兴市场化工：供应中断推动上涨行情

EquitiesChemicals Adisruption-fuelled rally Emerging Markets ◆EMchemsupc16% sinceMiddle Eastconflict started onpricing tailwinds; Platts chemical index is upc60%in March Sriharsha Pappu*Global Head of Energy & MaterialsHSBC Bank plcsriharsha.pappu@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 9243 ◆We view this as a one-timeboost toprofitability for 1-2quarters, with areturn to trough margins by year-end Lilyanna Yang, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities, PetrochemsHSBCSecurities (USA) Inc.lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 0990 ◆Weupdateour estimatesin line withrevisedsupply/demandbalances;update TPs forAlujain,APPC,Borouge, Orbia,Petkim,Rabigh,SIIG,and Yansab; no changetoratings Ildar Khaziev*, CFASenior EM Oil & Gas and Utilities AnalystHSBC Bank plcildar.khaziev@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 3302 Adisruption-fuelled share pricerally:EM chemical stocksare upc16% since thestart of theMiddle East conflictvs a 13% drop in the Emerging Markets index. Thismov hasbeendriveninourviewbyarotation intothesectorfrom previouslyunderweight positioning, fuelled by sharply higher petrochemical benchmarkprices.The broad based Plattschemical index is upc60%since thestartof March. Swati Soni*AssociateBangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Impact on balances:We’ve refreshedoursupply/demand models to capture theimpact of the Middle East conflict. Our base case assumes MENA capacity lossthrough April, with Asian production constrained by feedstock availability throughend-Q2’26. We also build in a one quarter delay to new capacity adds in Asia.Onthese assumptions, global operating rates effectively peak atc110% in March/April(i.e. driven by large inventory draws), underpinning record price increases across thecommodity chemical complex. We expect rates to remain near sold-out in May beforenormalising back to pre-conflict levels in the low-80% range by Q3/Q4. For 2026, thisimpliesc500bp higher global operating rates (toc86%), concentratedin Q1/Q2, witha one-off profit spike and margins reverting towards trough by year-end(seeGlobalChemicals: Mapping capacity loss + what matters now, 31 Mar 2026). We update ourestimates toreflect the newsupply/demandbalances ndrevised oil price forecasts.Weupdate our chemical product pricing assumptionsbased on an oil price ofUSD80/b from USD65/b for 2026,inline with HSBC's Oil andGas team’s oil price forecast.Wealso updatespreads for higheroperatingratesdriven by the ongoingdisruption. Revise TP’s, ratings unchanged:We update our TPs forall of our stocks exceptBraskem, Tasnee,Sabic,Kayan and Sipchem. Weleave our ratings unchanged—i.e.reiterate our Buy rating on Alujain, Braskem, Orbia and Rabigh; Reduce rating onTasnee and Petkim; and Hold rating on the rest of our chemical coverage.The keyriskto our estimateswould be an extended disruption as windfall profitabilitycouldturn into demand destruction and a net negative even with sustained capacityloss. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com A disruption-fuelledrally ◆EM chems have rallied c16% since the conflict started on pricingtailwinds; Platts chemical index is up c60% in March◆We view this as a onetime boost toprofitability for 1-2 quarters, with areturn to trough margins by year-end◆We update our estimates in line with this; update TPs for Alujain,APPC, Borouge, Orbia, Petkim, Rabigh, SIIG, and Yansab; nochange in ratings Disruption fuels the rally Pricing tailwinds driving stocks higher EM chemicalstocksare up c16%since the start of the Middle East conflict compared to a 13%decline in the broader EM index.This move has been driven in our view by arotation intothesector from previously underweight positioning, fuelled by sharply higher petrochemicalbenchmarkprices. The broad based Plattschemical index isup c60% sincethe start of March. Chemical stocks up c16%since the onset of MEconflict;Plattsindexup 60% Quantifying thedisruption In our disruption playbook,(seeGlobal Chemicals: Disruption playbook, 10March 2026)we laidout howsupply shocksprogress from a steeper oil-driven cost curve (Phase 1) into outrightsupply constraints as MENA exports and feedstock flows are curtailed (Phase 2), withsubsequent phases defined by shut-ins, refining run cuts and, ultimately, demand destruction. Across these phases, the key differentiator is access—to feedstock and to routes to market—with integrated and locally advantaged producers best positioned to capture widening spreads. Building on that framework,we model in MENA capacity loss through April with Asian capacityimpacted by feed constraints through end of Q2’26: we now assume MENA capacity loss through April ’26, Asian production disru